Stocks Surge To End The Quarter, What's Next For April??

Introduction

The speaker welcomes the audience and provides an overview of the market's performance.

Market Performance

• The markets rallied at the end of the quarter, with the Russell being the leader.

• The JP Morgan collar is now out of the way.

• Markets had a good week with good volume.

Technical Standpoint

The speaker discusses technical analysis and gives his opinion on where he thinks the market will go in April.

Market Analysis

• The market has had a nice rally here and they've really had a good week with good volume.

• We want to give the market a neutral to upside bias.

• We did get above this red bar high on a weekly closing basis so that is a sign of strength here in the near term.

• Spiders are overbought here short term.

Spy Trend Line

The speaker talks about watching for trends in Spy.

Spy Trend Line

• Short term, I'm watching this trend line uh next here on Spy if you get up into that you know Monday or Tuesday I would say probabilities favor a high percentage chance so we could get back into that 400 handle um where that 50 moving average is at least some type of pullback here but the Market's acting well.

Inflation Gauge

The speaker discusses inflation gauge and how it affects markets.

Inflation Gauge

• PCE is fed's favorite kind of inflation gauge.

• When you get a soft print, Market's going to take that positively.

• Down the road, this is not going to be you know, FED pause is ultimate sell news here so we're getting one step closer to that.

Dow

The speaker talks about the Dow and its performance.

Dow Performance

• The Dow got through all those levels we talked about that pivot high and this purple trend line.

• We'll say you know the 100ma will say 335 this red bar high will be that same level on the cues and the spiders for the Dow.

Market Analysis

The speaker discusses the market and its behavior, including resistance levels, short selling, and put buying.

Market Behavior

• A powerful reversal off the FOMC with an uptick in volume occurred.

• If there is a pause day after a powerful reversal and no flush or follow-through occurs, it indicates too many hedges.

• Too many puts being bought means that the market won't sell until shares are liquidated.

• Shares need to be sold for shorts to be affected; more shorts mean more incentive to screw them over.

• The market will experience a squeeze until shares are sold.

Resistance Levels

• Major resistance should occur if the market gets up quickly between Monday and Tuesday.

• The VIX likes to bounce between 18 and 19 handles, marking a good top in August in the spiders.

• The VIX will get defended at this level because the market is overjuiced right now.

Sector Analysis

The speaker analyzes different sectors of the market.

SMH Sector

• SMH was up 70 base points but had no closing high.

• There is still not much upside right now due to resistance with this rising ledge on the weekly timeframe.

• There may be some signs of exhaustion as it almost turned negative in the afternoon.

Nvidia Stock

• Nvidia has been a powerhouse since October, up over 100% year-to-date.

• Institutions buy Nvidia for their balance sheets' end-of-quarter statements to tell clients they own it.

• It's showing relative strength but is very overbought in the short term.

IGV Sector

• IGV had a nice move through double top up to 304.70 closing print.

• There may be some resistance at 315 to 317 and 320.

• It's holding up right now, but it's very overbought in the short term.

Transports Sector

• The transports sector was all over the map intraday.

• There is a nice push up and then a power move to the end of the day.

• It has gotten back above this weekly green bar, indicating strength in the near term.

Rates Analysis

The speaker analyzes rates for the day.

Two-Year Rates

• Rates today were analyzed starting with two-year rates.

Market Analysis

The speaker provides an analysis of the market, focusing on bonds, housing, financials, energy and crude oil.

Bonds

• The speaker believes that the market is secularly inflationary and that the Fed can only do so much to fight it.

• Yields pulled back in and the two-year is below the FED funds rate.

• VNQ finally got a good bid and gapped above its 20 moving average.

Housing

• XHB got a nice outside bit above the 50 moving average with some resistance up ahead.

• ITV had a better move but is also coming into resistance.

Financials

• XLF still on the soft side here while KRE went red twice today.

• XBD getting a nice bid above the 20 moving average.

Energy & Crude Oil

• Crude oil has a resistance at the 50ma and 20-week moving average with not much upside in near term.

• XLE had a nice retrace while OIH is still under pressure.

Natural Gas, Dollar Index, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Copper and Bitcoin Analysis

In this section, the speaker provides an analysis of various commodities including natural gas, dollar index, gold, silver, platinum, copper and bitcoin.

Natural Gas

• The speaker notes that natural gas has had a Ballinger band expansion which caused it to rip to the other side. It then got an expansion to the upside and now has a nice bull flag working on the hourly chart.

• The speaker believes that natural gas is trying to put in a bottom with a nice little W pattern forming.

Dollar Index

• The dollar index has been strange lately with eight days in a row of narrow body dojis.

• The speaker thinks that it is making kind of a down move and then bearish chop but with all these dojis it's really sloppy here again.

• The speaker still thinks it needs to go down and test double bottom.

Gold

• Gold needs to hold above 1962 unless there is a monumental dump in the next 20 minutes.

• A new quarterly all-time high close for gold is significant as it got above the red bar high.

• GDX needs to be at 52-week highs for the speaker to see gold as being in a new bull market.

Silver

• Silver looks like it wants to test pivots at 24.75 but is way overbought at present.

Platinum

• If platinum can firm up more then 1040 could be on the cards.

Copper

• Copper has a nice little test candle on the daily chart and could get to 420 but that's about all the upside for now.

Bitcoin

• Bitcoin is still holding up well with a nicely sloping 20 moving average catching up to price.

• The speaker thinks it needs to pierce thirty thousand before it's going to have any sort of significant downside.

Spiders

• The spiders are holding up well, but the speaker advises not getting too cute with this market.

Wrap Up and Future Plans

In this section, the speaker concludes his discussion on trading cues for the Russell 200ma 180 and Gap fill. He also mentions future plans and invites viewers to visit his website.

Trading Cues for Russell 200ma 180 and Gap Fill

• The speaker is watching the level again for the Russell 200ma 180 and Gap fill.

• He suggests that the diamond can get up to an area of 335.

Future Plans

• The speaker invites viewers to visit him on converttrades.com.

• He concludes by saying goodbye and that he will talk to everyone next week.