How to Prevent — or Stop — a War | Gabrielle Rifkind | TED

The Consequences of War and Paths to Peace

The Nature of War

• War is described as the greatest human rights abuse, often justified by moral reasons but resulting in chaos and misery.

• The speaker has two decades of experience in international conflict resolution and emphasizes that war does not make the world safer.

Historical Context of Recent Wars

• The U.S. and its allies have engaged in four major wars: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and against the Islamic State, with ongoing support for Ukraine and Israel.

• Outcomes of these conflicts include leaving the Taliban in power after 20 years in Afghanistan and contributing to civil unrest in Iraq post-invasion.

Understanding Conflict Dynamics

• Key drivers of war include marginalization, humiliation, and exclusion; dehumanization occurs during conflicts.

• The speaker advocates for addressing security concerns from all sides rather than solely focusing on one's own interests to prevent future wars.

Lessons from Recent Conflicts

• Russia's invasion of Crimea (2014) and Ukraine (2022) raises questions about Western responses to security concerns that could have prevented escalation.

• A comparison is made between NATO's expansion near Russia's borders and potential U.S. reactions to similar threats from neighboring countries like Mexico or Canada.

Engaging with Adversaries

• To end wars effectively, it is crucial to engage with all parties involved, including those labeled as "bad guys." Past negotiations with groups like the IRA demonstrate this necessity.

• The refusal to negotiate with leaders such as President Assad has led to greater violence; dialogue could have mitigated further suffering during conflicts like Syria’s civil war.

Pathways Forward

• Ending current conflicts requires understanding adversaries' perspectives—specifically regarding Putin's intentions in Ukraine—and exploring ceasefire opportunities through dialogue.

• In the context of Israeli-Palestinian relations, engaging figures like Marwan Barghouti may be essential for uniting Palestinian leadership towards a peaceful solution alongside Israel.

Broader Implications for Peace Efforts

• Current discussions around a two-state solution must include all relevant parties; excluding adversaries can sabotage peace processes significantly.

Mediation Opportunities in War

The Importance of Early Mediation

• In war, there are critical moments for mediation when parties are more open to compromise, particularly at the beginning and after testing their battlefield strength.

• If these opportunities for mediation are missed, the involved parties may become hardened by the trauma of war, leading them to believe they have sacrificed too much to consider peace.

Strengthening the UN for Peacemaking

• The current state of the UN is perceived as weakened; restoring faith in it is essential for effective peacemaking.

• Proposals include empowering the UN with statutory early mediation capabilities when countries are on the brink of war and establishing permanent war prevention teams in at-risk nations.

Establishing Permanent Peace Initiatives

• High-level mediators and permanent peace tables should be established in conflict-prone areas such as Sudan, Pakistan-India, Taiwan-China, Palestine-Israel, and US-China relations.

• A commitment to prevention and early intervention is crucial for mitigating potential conflicts.

Rethinking Roles of Liberal Democracies

• Liberal democracies should prioritize their roles as mediators and bridge builders rather than acting as self-appointed policemen or arms suppliers.