VIDEO
HIGHLIGHT
Log InSign up
ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - How To Use Bullish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis
SummaryTranscriptChat

ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - How To Use Bullish Seasonal Tendencies In HTF Analysis

Lesson 4.1: Implementing Macro Analysis

In this lesson, we will be teaching how to apply seasonal tendencies to higher time frame analysis, specifically focusing on bullish seasonals in higher time frame analysis using the Canadian dollar.

Seasonal Tendencies

  • Seasonal tendencies are a roadmap of past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee for future performance.
  • The Canadian dollar 40-year seasonal tendency is a compilation of data over all delivery months' price action for the last 40 plus years beginning in 1976.
  • Seasonal tendencies give characteristics to price that prove there is a rhyming reason behind everything that goes on.
  • Since we're primarily dealing with bullish seasonal tendencies in higher time frame analysis for this module, we're going to focus on tendencies that lend well to being a buyer.

Contract Delivery Months

  • Currencies deliver on March, June, September, and December every single year. These months expire.
  • When looking at the seasonal tendency chart, consider what time of year would be your first choice in deciding when would be a good time to buy.

Seasonal Tendencies in Canadian Dollar Futures and US CAD Pair

In this section, the speaker discusses the seasonal tendencies of Canadian dollar futures and how it affects the US CAD pair. The speaker explains that there is a strong probability for Canadian dollar futures to rally between March and June historically. However, as a foreign exchange trader, one must take into account that the US CAD pair is an inversion of what the futures contract shows for Canadian dollar futures price.

Understanding Seasonal Tendencies

  • There is a strong underlying tendency for Canadian dollar futures to rally between March and June historically.
  • As a foreign exchange trader, one must take into account that the US CAD pair is an inversion of what the futures contract shows for Canadian dollar futures price.
  • Between September and December, there typically is a strong tendency for the Canadian dollar to decline on the underlying Futures Contract.
  • If there's a strong tendency for September to December to have a decline in the Canadian dollar, that should be bullish scenario for U.S CAD.

Impact on Trading

  • As foreign exchange traders, we need to look at it from an inverted perspective where bearishness in underlying Futures Contract would mean bullishness in U.S CAD pairs.
  • Buying opportunities are presented during times when we expect prices to come down based on seasonal tendencies.
  • It's important to focus on buying during these times rather than looking for opportunities to sell.

Chart Analysis

  • The speaker analyzes charts from 2008 onwards showing how seasonal tendencies impacted US CAD pairs over time.
  • During periods when seasonal tendencies were expected to occur (September - December), US CAD pairs showed bullishness.
  • In 2011 and 2012, seasonal tendencies had a positive impact on US CAD pairs.

Understanding Seasonal Tendencies in Futures Contract and Forex Trading

In this section, the speaker explains how seasonal tendencies can be used to identify buying and selling opportunities in the futures contract and forex trading.

Seasonal Tendencies in Futures Contract for USD/CAD

  • Weakness in the futures contract for Canadian dollar creates a bullish stance for USD/CAD.
  • Currencies paired with the US dollar will have an inversion of seasonal tendencies compared to the futures contract.
  • Quarterly shifts combined with seasonal tendencies provide a roadmap for identifying buying and selling opportunities.
  • September to almost Christmas every year is a strong tendency for bullish USD/CAD trading.

Seasonal Tendencies in Crude Oil Market

  • The Canadian dollar moves almost in tandem with crude oil market due to Canada's reliance on crude oil exports.
  • March to June is a bullish period for crude oil market, which translates into a bullish effect on CAD as well.
  • The rally in crude oil market between March and June can be seen even during bear markets.

Conclusion

In this section, the speaker concludes by emphasizing that despite fly-in domain factors, there is an absolute program to everything that goes on.

Introduction to Seasonal Tendencies

In this section, the speaker introduces seasonal tendencies and how they can be used to identify high probability trades.

Understanding Seasonal Tendencies

  • The speaker initially dismissed seasonal tendencies but later realized their value in trading.
  • Certain markets have strong seasonal tendencies that occur every year during specific three to four month cycles.
  • Focusing on these quarters and particular currency pairs or asset classes can lead to higher odds of success.
  • However, it is important to note that high odds probability does not guarantee profitability or accuracy.

Correlated Pairs and Bearish Markets

  • The speaker provides an example of how correlated pairs between Canadian dollar and crude oil can work well with each other in terms of seasonal tendencies.
  • In module 4.2, the speaker will share all of the seasonal tendencies for all currencies.

Overall, this section provides an introduction to seasonal tendencies and highlights their potential value in trading. The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on certain quarters and currency pairs/asset classes with strong seasonal tendencies while acknowledging that high odds probability does not guarantee success.

Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 05
Video description

2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in January 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.