35. Introduction to intermarket SSMT

Overview of Trading Week

Market Performance

• The speaker expresses hope that the audience has had a successful trading week, indicating that their analysis from the previous Sunday has been fruitful.

• Emphasizes the importance of reviewing three main Triads before entering any trade: interest rate Triads, Forex Market Triads, and index Futures Triads.

Interest Rate Influence

• Discusses the significance of understanding T-bond Futures and how they relate to market control through interest rates.

• Highlights that everything in the financial world revolves around these markets, particularly focusing on how interest rates dictate market movements.

Analyzing Price Movements

Sequential SMT Analysis

• Introduces the concept of sequential SMT (Smart Money Technique), noting its occurrence on a weekly cycle and its relevance to price action.

• Mentions previously highlighted equal lows during a live stream and stresses the need for price to close above certain levels for confirmation.

Strategy Insights

• Clarifies that references to lows or highs are strategic indicators rather than direct signals for trading decisions.

• Warns against individuals misusing shared insights for personal gain, emphasizing adherence to outlined strategies for effective market alignment.

Stages of Market Movement

Identifying Key Stages

• Describes stage one as when price trades above and closes at significant levels, leading to further sequential SMT occurrences.

• Notes two sequential SMT formations aligning with bearish bias towards Euro/USD while being bullish on dollar movements.

Correlation Between Assets

• Explains how different currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD move inversely relative to the dollar, highlighting their interdependencies.

• Advises against comparing unrelated assets across different markets; instead suggests focusing on relationships within each asset's respective Triad.

Understanding Market Dynamics

Expansion Patterns

• Discusses observing expansion patterns among assets within their own Triads, which can indicate potential market movements.

• Points out specific instances where simultaneous SMT occurrences suggest expected movement in a range-bound market context.

Weekly Price Action Review

Understanding Market Dynamics and Sequential SMT

Analyzing Price Movements

• The discussion begins with the observation that Wednesday did not take out Tuesday's low, indicating a potential market pattern. The US dollar's high was also not breached, suggesting a lack of momentum.

• A rally occurred despite the absence of sequential SMT (Smart Money Technique), which typically indicates price movements. This raises questions about what drives such rallies in these contexts.

Importance of Intermarket Relationships

• Understanding how different asset classes relate to one another is crucial for accurate market analysis. Sequential SMT should be referenced across various markets rather than focusing on a single asset class.

• The speaker emphasizes the significance of recognizing symmetrical versus unsymmetrical highs and lows, as this can impact liquidity and market behavior.

Liquidity and Market Fluctuations

• Identifying swing lows is essential; real liquidity exists below these points. The interplay between different asset classes contributes to overall market fluctuations.

• Time and price are fundamental drivers in the marketplace; levels hold due to SMT rather than arbitrary reasons.

Advancing Knowledge in Trading Techniques

• The speaker introduces intermarket sequential SMT as an advanced concept that requires practice for mastery. While it may seem complex, understanding it enhances trading accuracy.

• Each asset class must behave similarly for price continuity; specific lows are targeted intentionally rather than randomly.

Recognizing Patterns in Price Action

• Observing that certain lows were taken out strategically highlights the importance of liquidity beneath those levels, which is often overlooked by traders.

• The discussion transitions to analyzing the US dollar's performance relative to other currencies, noting higher and lower lows that indicate bullish or bearish trends.

Evaluating Trade Opportunities

• Acknowledging previous expectations regarding currency pairs like the pound helps contextualize current movements. Notably, when liquidity is induced through strategic trades, significant price changes follow.

• Emphasizing that trading decisions should not rely solely on historical levels but instead focus on time dynamics and balance within the market structure.

Understanding Market Structure Shifts and Order Flow

Key Concepts of Market Structure Shifts

• The speaker discusses the concept of market structure shifts, emphasizing that they are not complicated and should be easy to understand.

• A bullish sentiment is identified when price breaks above a previous high, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

• The importance of intermarket sequences is highlighted; for instance, the pound breaking below a low while the dollar fails to do so signifies a significant shift in sentiment.

Impact of News on Price Movement

• The speaker asserts that news events (like CPI releases) do not dictate order flow; rather, established market structures guide price movements.

• Price behavior follows predictable patterns based on prior movements, suggesting that randomness does not exist in these markets.

Analyzing Asset Classes and Triads

• The analysis extends beyond individual asset classes to include relationships between different triads (groups of three related assets).

• Simplistic analysis is encouraged; traders can focus on specific asset classes without getting overwhelmed by too much information.

Timeframes and Sequential SMT

• Understanding timeframes is crucial; recognizing specific lows at certain times helps identify potential market moves.

• The ability to foresee price expansions based on previous lows indicates an understanding of sequential shifts in market structure.

Importance of Price Closures

• Higher lows within weekly cycles are driven by sequential SMT (Smart Money Techniques), which consistently influence price action.

• Price closures are critical indicators for algorithms tracking market movements; they reveal underlying trends more than mere highs or lows.

Mirroring Across Different Sessions

• Sequential SMT can occur across different trading sessions (e.g., London vs. New York), highlighting the interconnectedness of price actions over time.

• Recognizing when key lows form during specific sessions aids traders in predicting future price behavior effectively.

Market Analysis and SMT Insights

Understanding Market Expectations

• The speaker discusses the expectation of a price fall, emphasizing the importance of monitoring highs and lows in market cycles.

• Key focus is on specific high points that influence market behavior, particularly during monthly cycles.

Sequential SMT and Price Behavior

• Introduction to regular SMT (Smart Money Technique), which can be confirmed through lower time frame sequences.

• Explanation of how different ranges of time affect price movements; sequential SMT indicates potential for price decline.

Monthly Cycle Considerations

• Importance of using the 4-hour timeframe for analyzing monthly cycles; a close below certain levels signals expected price drops.

• Visual representation of price closing above or below key levels is crucial for understanding algorithmic market behavior.

Learning Through Application

• Emphasis on practical learning: applying discussed concepts to personal charts enhances understanding.

• The speaker encourages active engagement with charts rather than passive observation to grasp market dynamics effectively.

Market Timing and Opportunities

• Discussion about upcoming NFP (Non-Farm Payroll), indicating it as a significant event affecting market range expectations.

• Highlights that the first week of the month typically presents expansion opportunities, setting up for potential reversals later in the month.

Intermarket Relationships

• Introduction to intermarket sequence, explaining how different assets impact each other; bonds falling leads to declines in indices.

Discussion on Upcoming Q&A Session

Overview of the Session

• The speaker expresses hope that the audience has a wonderful day, indicating a friendly and positive tone.

• Acknowledges having spoken for an extended period, suggesting a need to wrap up the current discussion.

• Promises to hold a Q&A session either on Friday or Saturday, emphasizing commitment to engaging with the audience's questions.

• Mentions that questions will be addressed from the chat, highlighting interaction and responsiveness to audience inquiries.