Amy Webb Launches 2024 Emerging Tech Trend Report | SXSW 2024

Take Two

In this section, the speaker addresses technical difficulties and his unique approach to presentations.

Tech Challenges and Presentation Style

• The speaker acknowledges technical issues and emphasizes that blaming tech personnel is not always justified.

• Explains why he doesn't send presentations in advance, highlighting the value of attendees' time.

• Mentions editing his presentation until the last minute, causing stress for tech staff but praises their professionalism.

• Greets the audience humorously, acknowledging early risers from Brazil and Germany.

Appreciation for South By Attendees

The speaker expresses gratitude towards South By attendees and highlights the significance of the event.

Gratitude and Significance of South By

• Reflects on the importance of South By as a place for personal growth, business development, and forming friendships.

• Acknowledges the efforts of volunteers at South By who contribute to making the event successful.

• Shares personal connection to Austin and how attending South By has been a valuable experience for him and his team.

Understanding Trends

The speaker delves into different types of trends and their impact on society.

Analysis of Trends

• Discusses short-term trends like fashion fads versus long-term trends indicating societal change.

• Highlights ephemeral trends like expensive coffee cups while emphasizing long-term patterns that shape future possibilities.

The Current Technological Landscape

The speaker discusses the current state of technology, emphasizing the impact of artificial intelligence and the convergence of various technological fields.

The Influence of Technology

• Technology allows for the creation of functional objects like guitars through a combination of prompts, open-source applications, and 3D printing.

• Artificial intelligence is prevalent in today's world, with excitement surrounding technological advancements and key figures in the industry.

• Three primary areas driving technological progress are artificial intelligence, connected ecosystems, and biotechnology.

• These areas have become general-purpose technologies (GPT), shaping economies and societies significantly.

• Convergence between AI, biotech, and connected devices has led to significant advancements and value creation for consumers.

The Emergence of a Technology Super Cycle

A discussion on the concept of a technology super cycle and its implications on economic patterns.

Understanding Super Cycles

• A technology super cycle denotes an extended period of high demand that transforms economies significantly over years or decades.

• Historical examples like the industrial revolution and the internet era illustrate how single technologies can drive super cycles.

• The current super cycle involves three GPTs—AI, biotech, and connected ecosystems—impacting all aspects of life.

Challenges Amidst Technological Advancements

Addressing challenges posed by rapid technological growth and its impact on decision-making processes.

Navigating Uncertainty

• Leaders face complexity due to rapid technological changes, leading to shorter planning cycles driven by fear and uncertainty.

• Fear, uncertainty, doubt (FUD), surrounds emerging technologies like AI and digital transformation due to their abstract nature.

Transition Generation: Shaping Future Societies

Discussing societal transitions amidst technological advancements and individual agency in shaping future outcomes.

Transition Generation Dynamics

• Individuals are part of a transition generation experiencing significant societal shifts that will reshape future societies dramatically.

Technology Super Cycle and Strategic Foresight

Amy Webb discusses the technology super cycle, emphasizing the importance of agency and mutual support during this transformative period. She introduces strategic foresight as a tool to navigate uncertainties and create organizational resilience.

The Role of Technology Super Cycle

• Amy Webb dismisses fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), highlighting the need for collective action and support.

• Strategic foresight goes beyond trends, guiding organizations on where to focus, how to succeed in the future, and ensuring resilience amidst disruptions.

• The Future Today Institute focuses on helping organizations anticipate future trends to drive value creation and avoid potential pitfalls.

Tech Trends Report Insights

• The theme for this year's trend report is the technology super cycle, covering 695 trends across various industries.

• The report delves into specific technologies like AI, metaverse, Web3 as well as industry-specific trends in healthcare, banking, and space exploration.

Exploring Inflection Points for Industries

Amy Webb introduces inflection points within industries as crucial indicators for future impact. She emphasizes the significance of exploring new territories rather than relying solely on existing knowledge.

Industry Inflection Points

• Identifying inflection points helps organizations prepare for future disruptions by understanding immediate versus long-term impacts.

• Encourages exploration of white spaces within industries to anticipate emerging trends like biotechnology impacting financial services.

General Purpose Technologies: Artificial Intelligence

Amy Webb explores artificial intelligence (AI) as a foundational element of the tech super cycle. She provides a historical overview of AI advancements leading up to generative AI applications.

Evolution of Artificial Intelligence

• AI serves as a cornerstone in shaping the tech super cycle with significant advancements over time.

• Historical milestones from Ada Lovelace's computer programs to modern generative AI applications demonstrate AI's transformative journey.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the lack of diversity in AI-generated images of CEOs and explores the progress made in artificial intelligence over a year.

Lack of Diversity in AI-Generated Images

• The speaker attempted to generate images of non-white male CEOs using Midjourney but was unsuccessful.

• Despite trying different AI models like Dali by OpenAI, the results still depicted a white male CEO consistently.

• Efforts to prompt for a female CEO or a CEO of a tampon company resulted in continued depiction of a male figure, highlighting gender bias in AI image generation.

Accountability in Artificial Intelligence

• Exploring Anthropic's approach, which describes images rather than generating them, revealing details about the CEO based on assumptions.

• Discussing accountability as a key trend in AI, emphasizing the challenges in addressing bias and ethical issues within existing models.

Concept to Concrete: Changing Trends

This section delves into evolving trends where specificity is crucial for AI responses and how future advancements may shift towards broader conceptual prompts.

Challenges with Specific Prompts

• Highlighting issues with Google's Gemini model that avoided generating images of certain demographics due to model flaws.

• Critiquing Google's response to biases within their AI systems as reactive rather than proactive, leading to unresolved problems.

Conceptual Shift in AI Interaction

• Addressing concerns about the lack of diversity in generated images and questioning current incentives driving AI development towards speed and scale.

• Introducing the concept-to-concrete trend where broad ideas will replace specific prompts for more collaborative ideation with AI systems.

Future of Interaction with AI

The discussion focuses on upcoming changes in interacting with AI systems, moving from literal prompts to conceptual engagement for diverse applications.

Shifting Interaction Paradigms

• Describing how developers are creating tools for users to interact with AI systems through applets tailored for various tasks like flirting.

• Illustrating an example using Rizz GPT for crafting flirty messages, showcasing current reliance on precise prompts shifting towards broader concepts.

Concept-to-Concrete Platforms

• Previewing platforms like Pika enabling users to start from basic concepts and collaborate with AIs to develop detailed outcomes without rigid scripts.

Artificial Intelligence and Open Source Models

The discussion delves into the evolving landscape of artificial intelligence, highlighting the shift towards open source models and its implications for accountability and security.

Artificial Intelligence Black Box

• Artificial Intelligence is described as a black box, offering restricted yet safe environments for companies to maintain control over their systems.

• Recent trends show a decline in research paper publications by companies due to financial stakes, leading to a movement towards semi-open or totally open source AI models.

Meta's Open Source Model

• Meta's open source model, Llama 2, was launched with a responsible use guide but faced challenges when developers created an uncensored derivative model.

• Concerns arise regarding the potential misuse of uncensored AI models for activities like deep fake creation or developing biological weapons.

Mistral's Approach and Accountability

• Mistral, a French company, adopts an open-source model that costs significantly less than traditional AI training methods.

• The discussion emphasizes the lack of accountability in technology when undesirable outcomes occur, citing past incidents like the Tay chatbot generating harmful content.

Future Scenarios in AI Accountability

Exploring scenarios related to AI accountability gaps and ethical considerations in regulating AI practices.

Professional Licensing for AI

• Questions arise about whether AI models should undergo professional training or ethics training similar to human professionals.

• Instances of AI breaking rules without facing legal consequences highlight the need for defining accountability frameworks for AI systems.

Deep Fake Events and Misinformation

• Contemplation on the potential risks posed by using AI to create elaborate deep fake events involving multiple assets released simultaneously from various sources.

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Computing

In this section, the speaker discusses the role of artificial intelligence in shaping the future of computing and its integration into various aspects of our lives.

The Everything Engine

• Artificial intelligence is evolving to be embedded in all aspects of daily life, becoming the foundation of the tech super cycle.

Connected Ecosystems and Data

• AI's advancement relies on connected ecosystems for data collection.

• Mobility, robotics, advanced computing, and built environments contribute to this trend.

• The need for new devices arises as existing data sources like high-quality text are exhausted.

• Companies are innovating to gather more diverse types of data beyond online sources.

• Sensory and visual data are crucial for AI development.

• Large action models (LAMs) are emerging after large language models (LLMs).

• LLMs predict speech while LAMs predict actions by breaking tasks into smaller steps.

• Diverse data types are essential for AI progress amidst increasing legal challenges.

The Rise of Connectables

This section explores the proliferation of interconnected devices known as connectables and their impact on artificial intelligence development.

Networked Devices

• A surge in sensors surrounding us will collect vast amounts of data continuously.

• Wearables, extended reality devices, Internet of Things (IoT), smart homes/offices/cars form a network called connectables.

• These devices communicate and exchange data to enhance AI capabilities.

Cambrian Explosion

• An upcoming explosion in device variety includes peculiar inventions like an AI-powered cat door that controls pet access based on behavior.

• Historical examples like a stun gun MP3 player highlight initial oddities before normalization occurs with widespread adoption.

AI First Devices: Shaping Our Future

This segment delves into AI-first devices that adapt and learn from users in real-time, revolutionizing human-device interactions.

Personalized Technology

• Devices like Rabbit 1 create large action models tailored to individual users through continuous learning mechanisms.

• These innovations pave the way for personalized neural networks integrated into everyday gadgets.

Face Computers: The Next Frontier

The discussion shifts towards face computers such as Apple's Vision Pro, exploring their potential impact on technology evolution.

Face Computer Evolution

• Face computers like Vision Pro mark a significant technological shift akin to early iterations of smartphones that evolved over time.

• Despite current criticisms or limitations, these devices accelerate advancements in Extended Reality (XR) technologies across various brands.

The Future of Face Computers and Connectables

The discussion delves into the advanced technology embedded in face computers like the Vision Pro, emphasizing their sensor capabilities and role in spatial computing. It also touches on the design intent behind these devices, particularly focusing on reading user intentions.

Face Computers Technology

• The Vision Pro integrates 14 cameras capturing detailed information both inside and outside a headset. It utilizes lidar sensors for 3D mapping, infrared cameras, accelerometers, and gyroscopes to create a spatial computing environment.

• Face computers are designed not only to alter how users interact with the world but also to read intentions by analyzing pupil movements. This ability stems from the involuntary changes in pupil size that occur based on emotional responses or thoughts.

Future Market Trends

• Face computers are anticipated to predict user actions even before conscious awareness due to their capability to interpret subtle cues such as pupil movements. Companies are gearing up for a competitive landscape aiming for market dominance through innovative hardware offerings.

Innovations in Technology and Market Dynamics

This segment explores upcoming innovations like Humane's connectable device, highlighting its potential impact on daily life interactions. Additionally, it discusses market dynamics driving technological advancements.

Humane's Connectable Device

• Humane introduces a novel connectable device resembling a brooch that integrates various functionalities such as a camera, phone, projector, and data collection mechanisms. This device aims to streamline daily activities while building an extensive action model tailored to individual users.

• Despite skepticism surrounding Humane's product, it signifies a transformative shift in technology usage by serving as an interface for everyday tasks. The device's comprehensive data collection capabilities contribute to creating personalized action models without implying malicious intent from tech companies.

Market Strategies and Consumer Influence

This section sheds light on market strategies adopted by tech companies concerning product development and revenue generation. It emphasizes the significance of brand supremacy and continuous innovation in driving consumer engagement.

Tech Industry Dynamics

• Tech companies prioritize rapid product launches over ensuring maximum security or privacy features due to market demands favoring frequent upgrades and service subscriptions. Revenue growth hinges on offering superior devices that cater to consumer preferences while incentivizing continuous spending.

• The competitive landscape within the tech industry is evolving rapidly with numerous devices slated for release targeting diverse consumer needs across personal, professional, and domestic spheres. OpenAI's forthcoming home device hints at further technological integration into daily routines.

Implications of Advanced AI Integration

Delving into the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) with connectables devices, this part speculates on potential scenarios where instant access to information transforms work processes significantly.

AI Integration Scenarios

• The fusion of AI with connectables envisions seamless access to real-time summaries and analyses tailored to individual requirements across various industries like insurance. Instant data processing capabilities enable swift decision-making processes enhancing productivity levels.

• Automation facilitated by AI-driven systems streamlines information dissemination within organizations by generating concise reports promptly based on user preferences. This scenario illustrates how technology can revolutionize traditional workflows through efficient data processing mechanisms.

Challenges of Technological Advancements

Addressing potential challenges arising from advanced technologies like large action models hallucinating erroneous content leading to unforeseen consequences in automated processes.

Risks Associated with Large Action Models

• Large action models integrated into AI systems pose risks when generating inaccurate or inappropriate content inadvertently during automated tasks. Hallucinations within these models could result in producing misleading outputs potentially causing unintended repercussions.

• Hypothetical scenarios involving hallucinations by large action models underscore the importance of monitoring AI-generated content meticulously to prevent dissemination of erroneous or sensitive material inadvertently. Vigilance is crucial in mitigating risks associated with automated data processing systems.

Artificial Intelligence and Future Implications

The speaker discusses the potential impact of artificial intelligence on various aspects of society, including education, banking, and consumer behavior.

Potential Impact on Education and Banking

• AI could enhance education by providing reliable models for learning and attention.

• Researchers at the Technical University of Denmark developed a model predicting death using AI, which could be valuable for banks assessing mortgage risks.

• Concerns arise about creating a digital divide through dynamic pricing strategies in grocery stores to maximize profits.

Consumer Behavior and Privacy Concerns

• Dynamic pricing may lead to personalized prices based on individual data, potentially causing panic buying and inflation.

• A scenario is presented where individuals must share personal data to afford groceries due to fluctuating prices, highlighting privacy implications.

Security Challenges in the Digital Age

The discussion shifts towards security challenges posed by technological advancements like connectables and potential threats such as malware tied to physical movement.

Malware Threats and Privacy Risks

• Malware linked to physical movement poses new security risks in spatial computing environments.

• Connectables enable real-time data collection but raise concerns about privacy breaches through spatial computing attacks.

Technological Advancements and Semiconductor Challenges

The focus is on the increasing demand for AI technologies amid semiconductor chip shortages and the need for alternative architectures.

Semiconductor Shortages and AI Development

• Global semiconductor chip shortages pose challenges for meeting the growing demand for AI technologies.

• Exploration of alternative architectures like Groq aims to enhance AI processing speed but faces material limitations.

Interplay Between Biotechnology, AI, and Connectables

The integration of biotechnology with AI and connectables is discussed as a means to align machine processes with biological information processing capabilities.

Convergence of Biotechnology with Technology

• Biotechnology complements AI and connectables by offering unique information processing capabilities akin to biological systems.

Biotechnology and AI Integration

The discussion revolves around the integration of biotechnology and AI, focusing on generative biology and its potential applications.

Generative Biology

• Generative biology aims to predict and design organisms similar to Chat GPT's function for text generation.

• Startups are emerging to enable prompts for designing proteins, materials, and therapeutics through generative biology. DeepMind's AI tool discovered new materials with significant potential.

Organoid Intelligence: The Future of Computing

Organoid intelligence (OI) is introduced as a concept that leverages biological materials like brain cells for information processing, potentially surpassing silicon-based systems in efficiency.

Organoids and OI

• Organoids are miniature tissue replicas structured like organs, created from stem cells nudged to develop into specific cell types. Johns Hopkins University developed a brain organoid while researchers in Melbourne made a brain organoid capable of playing pong.

• OI utilizes brain cells for processing information, hinting at the future development of biocomputers made from human brain cells that could outperform traditional computers in speed and energy efficiency.

Future Scenarios: Biocomputers and Connectables

The discussion delves into the potential scenarios arising from combining AI, connectables, and biotechnology, envisioning a shift towards growing biocomputers instead of manufacturing them.

Biocomputers Evolution

• Biotechnology is anticipated to advance beyond silicon-based computing systems towards biocomputers made from human brain cells that offer enhanced speed, efficiency, and energy conservation compared to current technologies.

• A futuristic scenario is presented where companies could order personalized biocomputers grown from specific individuals' brain cells, raising ethical questions about selection criteria based on attributes like intelligence or achievements.

Technology Super Cycle Concerns

The technology super cycle is discussed concerning its concentration of power among a select group controlling tech resources and influencing various aspects of society.

Tech Super Cycle Impact

• Emerging technologies pose challenges if left unchecked without intervention due to how they are utilized by those building and funding them. The control exerted by a small group over tech resources raises concerns about societal influence across different domains.

New Section

In this section, the speaker provides recommendations for governments and businesses to navigate the technological changes ahead.

Government Recommendations

• Establish a department of transition to look forward and anticipate the impact of the tech super cycle.

• Focus on fields where human labor will be essential long-term like plumbing and electrical work.

• Encourage the value of trades alongside traditional education paths.

Business Strategies

• Implement value network mapping to understand evolving partnerships and create value effectively.

• Emphasize the importance of adapting to changing value networks to avoid obsolescence.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes the need for proactive measures in embracing technological advancements for a prosperous future.

Embracing Change

• Advocates for companies to conduct value network mapping to foresee disruptions and innovate effectively.

• Urges individuals and businesses to fight for a prosperous future by adapting to technological shifts.

Call to Action

• Encourages downloading resources provided for further understanding and implementation of strategies discussed.

• Invites participation in master classes on trend analysis and strategy development for continued learning.