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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 08 - High Probability Daytrade Setups
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 08 - High Probability Daytrade Setups

Introduction

In this lesson, the speaker discusses high probability day trade setups and how to identify them.

Identifying High Probability Day Trades

  • Use the higher time frame daily and/or four-hour direction to determine retracement entries.
  • When the daily and/or four-hour direction is bullish, use the previous day's low to high for retracement entries.
  • When the daily and/or four-hour direction is bearish, use the previous day's high to low for retracement entries.
  • Focus on the anticipated move from higher time frame discount to premium PD arrays.

Retracement Entries

The speaker explains how to use previous days' lows and highs for retracement entries.

Bullish Retracement Entries

  • Use previous day's low for cell stop raid to accumulate lungs.
  • Focusing on the anticipated move from higher time frame discount to premium PD arrays.

Bearish Retracement Entries

  • Use previous day's high for buy stop rate accumulate shorts.
  • Focusing on the anticipated move from higher time frame premium to Discount PD arrays.

Swings To Be Aware Of

The speaker discusses several swings that traders need to be aware of when looking for high probability trades.

Previous Day's Range

  • Look at the previous day's New York session range from high to low.
  • This means looking at the session's highest high and lowest low during New York trading hours.

London Session Range

  • Look at what was highest high and lowest low during London session.
  • This means looking at London high in London low for Elena Killzone.
  • Also look at London high or low relative to opposite extreme in New York session beginning.

Price Analysis

The speaker explains how to analyze price and find opportunities for day trading.

Lower Time Frame Charts

  • Look for similar things as on higher time frame charts.
  • Nothing seen in lower time frame is different from what has been outlined in daily, weekly or monthly charts.

Criteria For High Probability Setups

The speaker outlines the criteria he looks for when framing a high probability setup.

Framing A High Probability Setup

  • Use daily and four-hour charts independently or in concert with one another to build bullish or bearish ideas.
  • Look at price analysis to see if price is supporting bullishness.
  • Measure range from London's extreme high or low to opposite extreme higher low prior to New York opening.
  • This helps find next trading day retracement up during protractionary state.
  • Move up will be a retracement into that London session range from London going into beginning of New York.
  • Measure New York session range high and low.
  • Many times this will give setup framed for next day's higher low.
  • It'll be retracement inside that range.
  • Look for previous day's high and low to look for stop rates.

End Of Recent Move

  • If several days have gone up, it'll go up into premium array and probably trade above old high.
  • Look for buy stock run there and then go short the next day.
  • If market has been trading lower, it trades down to discount PD array.
  • Look for market to trade down below previous day's low.
  • Buy sell stops and use as a day trade.

Conclusion

The speaker provides insights on identifying high probability trades using daily and four-hour charts, measuring ranges, analyzing prices, looking at previous days' highs/lows, among other things.

When to Buy for Day Trades

In this section, the speaker discusses when to buy for day trades.

Ideal Periods and Conditions

  • Ideally, seasonal periods of the year are preferred but not required.
  • Look for a bullish quarter after a positive daily chart reaction on a discount PD array.
  • A clear path to an opposing premium array is necessary.
  • The setup should be easily visible.

Best Days and Times

  • Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays are ideal buying days.
  • The Central Bank dealers range should be less than 40 pips.
  • The Asian range should be in a 20 pip range or less before Frankfurt opening.
  • Buying between 2 am and 4 am New York time is recommended.

Execution Time Frame

  • Execute on a 15 or 5-minute chart.

Where to Buy

Under the Asian Range Plus Five Pips for Spread

  • Look for fair value gaps below short-term lows from previous days' New York sessions.

Short-Term Low

  • Look back at the previous day's range in the New York session.

London Kill Zone

-, look for sell stops triggered below short-term lows either from intraday today or previous day's low.

Overlap with Other Factors

-, if there has been no upside protractionary state after taking out short term low twice then it will keep going lower.

Trading Strategies for the London Open

In this section, the speaker discusses his trading strategies for the London open. He explains how he looks for certain scenarios to line up and what types of trades he prefers.

Types of Trades

  • The speaker has a toolbox of consistent trades that form several times a week during the London session. These trades are based on specific criteria that will meet every London session.
  • The speaker recommends studying these trades as they do not have the same characteristics and depend on what the market is providing at that time.

Placing Stop Losses

  • Do not rush moving your initial stop loss in day trading during the London session.
  • Leave your stop at initial until you get to at least 40 to 50 of the daily range if you can get that in London then bring it to break even but anything prior to that don't do it.
  • If you're trading in Central Bank dealers range overlap with a PD array, your stop has to be 30 Pips under your entry.
  • If you're trading a run under the Asian range, your stop needs to be 40 Pips below your entry.
  • If you're trading any sell-stop raid, your stop has to be below that 30 Pips again.

Taking Profits

  • Always try to take something off and gain at 20 to 30 Pips always do this in London
  • Look to scale something off every two standard deviations of the Asian range or Central Bank dealers range before taking next level profit.
  • Take something off at previous day's High plus 5 to 15 Pips because you could end up in a turtle soup scenario and it could retrace on you.
  • Take something off at 50% of price range traded on a 60 Minute basis inside the range.

Taking Profits in Day Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses how to take profits in day trading and provides specific criteria for when to do so.

Criteria for Taking Profits

  • Take 60-80% off at five-day average daily range projections.
  • Consider taking profits if two standard deviations of the Asian range or Central Bank dealerships have been reached.
  • If trading higher than the previous week or month, take something off there.
  • Scale out something at or just above the 5 o'clock hour New York time.
  • Look to scale out between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. New York time during a rally.
  • Ideally, any of the above scenarios should be coupled with a PD array in a premium basis.

Shorting Day Trades

  • Look to short day trades ideally in seasonal bearish periods of the year but it's not required.
  • Short after the daily chart has reacted positively on a premium PD array.
  • Sell one to two standard deviations of the Central Bank dealers range and/or Asian range coupled with a premium PD array.
  • Look to sell short above the Asian range at least five pips above it.

Short Day Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker discusses his short day trading strategies and provides guidelines for placing stop losses and taking profits.

Bearish Swing Trade Strategy

  • If the speaker is bearish with one standard deviation in any premium PD array in the open Kill Zone, he can trade on that.
  • The speaker looks for a Judah swing that occurs right from midnight going up into 2 A.M New York time. He waits for a move right after 12 a.m up to trade into a premium PD array that's enough to get short.
  • After the drop post 12 am, he sells the first retracement into a 15 or 5 minute bearish order block.
  • One to two standard deviations in the Asian range coupled with a premium PD array is also an opportunity to sell. If short-term high is taken out twice with no initial downside, he'll sell that as turtle soup.

Placing Stop Losses

  • When placing stop losses in short day trades, use the initial stop loss and don't be in a rush to move it. For Central Bank dealers range overlap with a PDA stop must be 30 Pips above your entry.
  • If trading run above Asian Range High, stop has to be 40 Pips if you're trading any buy stock rate your stop has to be 30 Pips above the high or your entry.
  • If trading first retracement into bearish order block, stop has to be 10 Pips above highest high of day.
  • If trading second return for buy stops or basically turtle soup and we have not seen an immediate rally lower in price after midnight, stop has to be 30 Pips above the highest high of the day. If trading any other setup not described above use 50% of the average daily range of the last five days added to the Asian Range High.

Taking Profits

  • Always try to take something off and gain at 20 to 30 Pips. Look to scale something off every two standard deviations in the Asian range or Central Bank dealers range.
  • Take something off at the previous day's low minus 5 to 15 Pips.
  • Take something off at the 50 range or equilibrium of the price range you are trading inside on a 60 Minute chart take or have taken sixty to eighty percent off at the average daily range of last five days do this always.
  • If trading lower than previous trading week's low, take something off there as it could be a potential reversal. If trading lower than previous month's low, again this could be a potential reversal so you want to take something off there. In time of day scale out something at or prior to 5 A.M New York time.
  • In time of day scale out a short-term low prior to 7 A.M New York open in other words New York open could be reversal or generally a retracement into CME opening so you want to see profit taking some measure portion come off as profit as it's accelerating lower ahead of 7 am.

Conclusion

The speaker provides guidelines for his short day trading strategies including bearish swing trade strategy, placing stop losses and taking profits. He emphasizes that these are his general rules of operation and what he generally looks for when entering trades, taking profits, and using stops. He also mentions that other ideas such as FIB 127 168 and the 100 percent symmetrical price swing or 100 move measured move can be coupled with any of these strategies to amplify profit taking.

Understanding the Scenarios

In this section, the speaker explains that not all scenarios will be applicable to every trade and outlines how to identify probable scenarios for a particular trade idea.

Identifying Probable Scenarios

  • Not all scenarios will be applicable to every trade.
  • Knowing what the scenarios are in advance can help identify probable scenarios for a particular trade idea.
  • Consider factors such as weekly and monthly lows, average daily range, and time of day when identifying probable scenarios.
  • There are specific rules for setups, including buys, sells, and stop loss placement.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes by emphasizing the importance of thinking for oneself and following specific outlined scenarios to achieve success in trading.

Key Takeaways

  • Success in trading requires thinking for oneself and having specific rules.
  • Following outlined scenarios can lead to success on a week-by-week basis.
  • It may require some work but is worth it in the end.
Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 08
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