O BRASIL É A BOLA DA VEZ

Introduction to the Video

Overview of Content

• Ryan Santos introduces a scripted video format, moving away from reacting to follower questions or content.

• The focus is on a personal story about losing over R$ 1 million in one day, setting the stage for a discussion on geopolitics.

Transitioning to Geopolitical Commentary

Personal Background and Interests

• Ryan shares his background, stating he has no formal education in marketing but transitioned into it out of necessity.

• He expresses a passion for international relations and macroeconomics, which led him to discuss geopolitics on YouTube.

The Russian ETF Investment Experience

Initial Investment Strategy

• Upon the declaration of Russia's "special operation," Ryan observed global market reactions and decided to invest in a Russian ETF.

• He explains that this ETF represents the Russian economy, similar to Brazil's EWZ index fund.

Misjudgment and Consequences

• Despite believing the market had mispriced the ETF after an 80% drop, he later faced significant losses when Russian stocks were frozen due to sanctions.

• His initial investment of R$ 200,000 ultimately became worthless as the government invalidated foreign ownership claims.

Reflection on Investment Decisions

Missed Opportunities

• Ryan reflects on how he could have converted his investment into cash by physically traveling to Russia instead of relying on digital transactions.

• He emphasizes that being too reliant on paper assets can lead to substantial losses during geopolitical crises.

Lessons Learned

• The importance of choosing appropriate investment vehicles is highlighted; despite having sound reasoning behind his investment choice, using an ETF was detrimental.

Current Market Observations

Brazilian Market Performance

• Ryan notes that Brazil's stock market is performing exceptionally well this year compared to others globally.

Specific Stock Insights

• He mentions owning shares in SBSW (Sibanye Stillwater), which saw a remarkable increase of 496% over one year due to its mining operations.

Investment Insights and Market Trends

Performance of Vale and Sibanye Stillwater

• The speaker reflects on a missed investment opportunity, acknowledging that they sold shares too early, which could have yielded greater profits.

• Vale's performance is highlighted, noting an 84% increase over the past year, although it is not as significant as other stocks like CBAN.

• A comparison between Vale and Sibanye Stillwater (Sib) reveals that while Vale focuses more on iron ore, Sib specializes in Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), contributing to its higher performance.

Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies

• The speaker discusses their long-term investment strategy focused on oil and precious metals, emphasizing the importance of tangible assets.

• Warren Buffett's market withdrawal is mentioned as a pivotal moment influencing broader market trends; his actions may signal potential benefits for Brazil amidst global economic shifts.

Global Economic Shifts Impacting Brazil

• The discussion touches upon how funds are moving from intangible assets to tangible ones due to current economic conditions, favoring countries rich in natural resources like Brazil.

• The speaker explains that Brazil has a wealth of resources including oil and various minerals, positioning it well in the global market during times of crisis.

Currency Fluctuations and Investment Risks

• There’s a warning about those who dollarized their assets last year facing losses due to currency fluctuations; the Brazilian real is strengthening against the dollar.

• The initial phase of the crisis sees investors fleeing towards tangible commodities such as metals and land, indicating panic in markets which can benefit Brazil.

Conclusion: Future Outlook for Brazilian Commodities

• While there are positive indicators for Brazilian commodities amid global uncertainty, there are also underlying risks that should be acknowledged without inciting fear or panic among investors.