#Morningcall 28/04 "Se activa el indicador #NYSE #SuperZweig por octava vez en la historia"

Market Overview and Key Events for the Week

Introduction to Market Dynamics

• The speaker welcomes listeners and introduces a new week in financial markets, highlighting the intensity of upcoming events.

• Notable elections are scheduled in Canada, Singapore, and Australia, alongside significant central bank meetings including the Bank of Japan (B.O.J.).

Economic Indicators and Reports

• Over 30% of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week, with major players like Apple expected to release their results.

• The U.S. is preparing for the Non-Farm Payroll (N.F.P.) report on Friday, along with inflation data from both the Eurozone and Australia.

Political Developments

• A recent meeting between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky at a Vatican funeral is noted as a significant political event.

• China refutes claims made by Trump regarding trade discussions with the U.S., emphasizing ongoing tensions.

Super Week Indicator Activation

Understanding Super Week

• The "Super Week" indicator has been activated for only the eighth time in market history; it historically predicts positive returns.

Historical Performance Insights

• Previous activations have led to an average return of at least 20% one year later; examples include activations in 1963, 1976, 2008, among others.

Market Reactions Post Activation

• Data shows that after activation, there tends to be a strong positive market response; most instances resulted in substantial gains within one year.

Analyzing Past Trends

• Historical analysis reveals that out of seven previous activations, all resulted in at least a 20% increase over time despite some short-term fluctuations.

Conclusion on Indicator's Significance

Market Behavior Analysis and Indicators

Overview of Market Trends

• The speaker discusses the market behavior over the past week, noting a 70% advance in two weeks, indicating positive momentum despite bearish trends.

• Reference to Fonsrat's analysis showing that previous signals have led to market gains 100% of the time, particularly focusing on one-month, six-month, and twelve-month returns.

• Introduction of the "Super Week" indicator as a significant factor for predicting market movements based on historical data.

Current Market Recovery

• Observations indicate that many European markets are recovering to pre-crisis levels following significant drops due to trade tensions initiated by the U.S.

• Specific advancements noted in various European markets: Paris up 0.6%, DAX up 0.5%, and Milan nearly 0.9% higher.

Technical Issues During Broadcast

• Acknowledgment of technical difficulties with video streaming; efforts made to improve signal quality for viewers.

Historical Context of Super Week Indicator

• The "Super Week" indicator has historically shown a potential return of at least 20% one year after activation, highlighting its reliability based on past occurrences.

Global Economic Influences

• Updates from Asian markets show mixed results: Japan up 0.4%, while China experiences slight declines; discussions around China's proactive macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth.

• Notable impacts from trade tensions include significant cancellations in shipping orders between Asia and the U.S., specifically mentioning a record cancellation of pork shipments from the U.S. by China.

Implications of Trade Policies

• Discussion on how ongoing trade disputes could affect supply chains in the U.S., with specific mention of container ship traffic dropping by 40%.

Trade Dynamics and Economic Insights

Impact of Tariffs on Trade

• The discussion highlights the significant impact of increased tariffs, with Huawei facing a 377% increase due to rising baranceles (tariffs). This situation is exacerbated by restrictions imposed by the Trump administration on chip imports from China.

Upcoming Trade Agreements

• Recent statements from Trump indicate that new trade agreements are expected soon, particularly involving Asian territories like Japan and Vietnam, which are reportedly making progress in negotiations.

Tariff Percentages Across Regions

• A breakdown of potential tariff percentages reveals varying rates: EU at 20%, Japan at 24%, South Korea at 25%, India at 26%, Switzerland at 31%, Indonesia at 32%, Thailand at 36%, and Vietnam leading with a rate of 46%.

U.S.-China Negotiations

• U.S. Secretary Godbesnet emphasizes ongoing dialogues between the U.S. and China, urging China to de-escalate its negotiation tone regarding tariffs. Trump has suggested possible reductions in tariffs up to 50% from the current level of 145%.

Economic Indicators in Spain and Germany

• Recent economic data shows an increase in Spain's unemployment rate to 11.3% against expectations of 10.7%. Conversely, retail sales have shown positive growth, indicating mixed economic signals.

• In Germany, discussions about government formation include potential appointments for key ministerial positions such as Catherine Reich for economy and energy.

Market Analysis and Projections

Transitioning to Graphical Analysis

• The speaker transitions into graphical analysis, inviting listeners to join via YouTube for visual insights into market trends.

LibEx Market Recovery

• The LibEx market is noted for its recovery trajectory after significant declines following Trump's tariff announcements. Predictions made earlier suggest it could return to annual highs.

Current Market Performance Metrics

• LibEx has reached levels not seen since 2007, currently hovering around the critical resistance point of approximately 13,400 points. Analysts anticipate further upward movement towards the next target of around 13,600 points.

Technical Analysis Insights

• Observations indicate that if LibEx surpasses the resistance level of approximately 136137 points, there may be potential for reaching up to 14,000 points based on technical patterns observed in weekly charts.

Strengthening Market Trends

Market Analysis and Projections

LibEx's Potential Movement

• Discussion on the potential for LibEx to reach the psychological level of 14,000 points, which could signify a positive market trend.

• Mention of how other financial sectors, particularly banks like Santander and BUEA, may benefit from LibEx's upward movement towards 14,000 points.

DAX Market Insights

• Analysis of the DAX index showing a weekly reversal pattern; emphasis on its importance in current market conditions.

• Highlighting key support and resistance levels around 22,800 points as critical for investor sentiment and future movements.

Eurostock 50 Trends

• Comparison between Eurostock 50 and DAX charts; both are seen as having similar structures with targets set at 5,300 points.

• Notation that despite different markets being analyzed, they exhibit similar technical patterns indicating consolidation above key support levels.

London Market Dynamics

• Observations on London's market facing significant resistance after breaking previous support levels; potential for strong upward movement if resistance is overcome.

• Technical analysis indicates a symmetrical triangle formation near resistance levels; this could lead to substantial price action if broken.

Currency Movements: Euro vs. Dollar

• The ongoing struggle of the euro against the dollar is noted; implications for gold prices due to shifts in currency strength.