¿Hacia dónde va el gas natural en Colombia?

Welcome and Introduction to the Gas Sector Report

Opening Remarks

• Paola Salazar, Corporate Communications Manager of Promigas, welcomes attendees to the presentation of the Natural Gas Sector Report Infoaz 2026.

• The report aims to provide information and analysis on Colombia's energy sector, emphasizing its relevance for national development.

• Juan Manuel Rojas, President of Promigas, is invited to discuss challenges facing the country and necessary actions.

Positive Impact of the Natural Gas Industry

Industry Benefits

• Rojas highlights that natural gas positively transforms lives for 36 million Colombians, particularly benefiting low-income households (85% from strata 1, 2, and 3).

• The industry connects approximately 300,000 to 400,000 homes annually to natural gas services.

• Households connected to natural gas experience significantly lower rates of energy poverty (3.7%) compared to those without it (36%).

Economic Contributions

Financial Impact

• In 2025, the industry contributed over $2.3 trillion COP in taxes and $1.5 trillion COP in royalties.

• Social investments by gas companies reached nearly $24 million USD last year, benefiting over 1.6 million Colombians.

Resilience and Response Capabilities

Emergency Response

• Following a significant earthquake on August 10th, the industry managed over 12,955 emergency reports with a high response rate within a week.

• Approximately 94,000 homes were affected; efforts are ongoing to restore services where possible.

Challenges Facing the Industry

Structural Issues

• Rojas emphasizes that despite past successes in building a resilient system for natural gas distribution, recent policies have weakened this infrastructure.

• A structural deficit in natural gas supply has emerged due to declining reserves and insufficient production capacity.

Urgent Need for Policy Changes

Call for Action

• The current reliance on imported gas (34% of supply), along with reduced domestic production capabilities due to policy errors is highlighted as critical issues needing immediate attention.

Future Strategies for Recovery

Proposed Solutions

• Rojas outlines two fronts for action: addressing short-term structural problems while also focusing on long-term self-sufficiency through exploration and investment in infrastructure.

Investment Opportunities

Economic Potential

• An estimated investment of $9 billion could lead to significant reductions in energy poverty and contribute substantially to Colombia's GDP.

Conclusion: Path Forward

Vision for Growth

• Emphasizing that with proper regulatory conditions and investment signals from the government, there is potential for substantial economic growth through increased domestic gas production.

27 Years of Energy Sector Insights

Overview of Current Report

• The report marks 27 years of analysis, focusing on developments in the energy sector as of 2025, with additional current information due to rapid changes in the industry.

Government Initiatives and Optimism

• The new government under President Eduardo de la Espriella has sparked optimism with 13 proposals aimed at addressing energy sector challenges, emphasizing a need for serious decision-making rather than ideological biases.

Energy Security Challenges

• A critical issue highlighted is not a lack of resources but rather the absence of decisive actions to ensure energy security and fiscal stability. The focus is on reviving oil and gas exploration with legal certainty.

Strategic Focus Areas

• Key strategies include enhancing energy self-sufficiency, treating gas as a strategic asset, accelerating development in discovered fields, and reinforcing Ecopetrol's role as a national asset.

Current Energy Crisis

• The International Energy Agency defines energy security as uninterrupted access to affordable energy sources; currently, Colombia faces an energy crisis lacking this security.

Dimensions of Energy Security

UME's Definition of Security Dimensions

• The UME outlines three dimensions: robustness (preventing risks), sovereignty (reducing external dependencies), and resilience (maintaining essential supply during crises).

Local Concerns About Resilience

• Colombia lacks resilience; any failure in infrastructure could lead to significant problems in gas supply.

Government's Urgent Call for Action

Ministerial Statements on Energy Security

• The Minister of Mines emphasizes that ensuring energy security is the government's top priority amid increasing demand and project delays.

Need for Collective Effort

• There’s an urgent call for collaboration among Colombians to make timely decisions that will shape a sustainable future for the country's energy landscape.

Natural Gas Supply Chain Issues

Five Main Frontiers in Natural Gas Chain

• Discussion revolves around five key areas from production to commercialization amidst global high fossil fuel demand while advocating for renewable integration without abandoning fossil fuels entirely.

Balancing the Energy Trilemma

• Emphasizes achieving balance between environmental sustainability, energy security, and equity; without sufficient gas supply, discussions about sustainability become moot.

Investment Needs and Future Outlook

Investment Perspectives

• Investors warn against immediate transitions away from fossil fuels due to potential socio-economic damages; reliance on coal or wood may increase if alternatives are not available.

Structural Deficits Highlighted

• Current structural deficits indicate over-reliance on imports due to local production declines; urgent investments are needed to restore autonomy in gas supplies.

Crisis Management Theory Application

Risk Management Framework

• Introduces disaster risk management theory highlighting vulnerability leading up to damage when delayed decisions accumulate pressure resulting in crises within Colombia’s energy sector.

Current State of Gas Production

Dependency on Single Plant

• Currently, 34% of daily consumption relies on one regasification plant which operates continuously but poses risks if maintenance issues arise.

Energy Autonomy Loss

Structural Changes Over Time

• Colombia has lost its energetic autonomy with increasing dependency on foreign gas supplies; previously discussed measures have now become structurally entrenched issues requiring long-term solutions.

Gas Reserve Calculations Under Scrutiny

Misleading Reserve Estimates

• Despite theoretical reserves suggesting 5.9 years' worth of gas remains, actual production capacity does not align with these figures indicating severe miscalculations affecting planning efforts.

Production Declines Impacting Supply

Historical Context Of Production Decline

• In recent years there has been a significant drop (54.6%) in proven reserves indicating alarming trends that require immediate attention before reaching critical levels.

Consequences Of Supply Shortages

Impacts On Consumers And Employment

• As local suppliers struggle with delivery failures leading companies like Cerromatoso to reduce operations by half impacting jobs directly linked through contractors affecting over 570 positions.

Rising Costs For Households

Economic Burden On Low-Income Families

• Increased costs associated with imported gas will disproportionately affect lower-income households who may see bills rise by up to 25%, exacerbating financial strain.

Future Projections And Risks

Anticipated Demand Pressures

• Analysts predict heightened pressures between 2026–2030 necessitating proactive measures including new projects entering development phases urgently required given current market dynamics.

Geopolitical Factors Affecting Prices

External Influences On Domestic Markets

• Global events such as conflicts can significantly impact pricing structures creating volatility within Colombian markets further complicating recovery efforts moving forward.

Regulatory Framework Necessities

Importance Of Institutional Dialogue

• Re-establishing effective communication channels between regulators & stakeholders crucially needed after previous lapses hindered progress towards sustainable solutions across sectors involved.

Exploring Alternative Sources Of Gas

Potential Collaborations With Venezuela

• Discussions surrounding re-engagement regarding Venezuelan exports highlight opportunities yet also underline complexities tied into regional politics influencing feasibility outcomes overall.

Long-Term Solutions Required For Stability

Need For Diverse Supply Chains

• Emphasis placed upon diversifying import routes alongside bolstering domestic capabilities vital towards mitigating risks associated solely relying upon singular sources moving ahead effectively ensuring stability throughout systems established overall .