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My Thoughts on US & Global Current Events
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My Thoughts on US & Global Current Events

Understanding Historical Patterns in Current Events

The Repetition of History

  • The speaker compares current events to a familiar movie, indicating that they have observed similar patterns throughout history.
  • They emphasize the importance of understanding cause-and-effect relationships that recur over time, despite the shock these events may bring to others.
  • The speaker has studied 500 years of history to inform their perspective and decision-making regarding current affairs.

Insights from Historical Study

  • The speaker aims to share insights derived from their historical analysis quickly and effectively, providing a concise overview rather than a lengthy read.
  • They reference an attached piece that encapsulates key principles related to changing world orders, suggesting it serves as a more efficient alternative to reading the entire book.
Video description

Many people seem shocked by what’s happening, most recently in the Minneapolis and Greenland conflicts, though also in many other ways over the last year. In my opinion, that’s because they don’t understand what’s going on with the breakdown of the post-World War II monetary, domestic political, and international political orders. This is happening in classic Big Cycle ways that have repeated throughout history and were laid out in detail in my book, Principles for Dealing With the Changing World Order, which I wrote about five years ago. In that book, I described how the Big Cycle unfolds in stages with clear characteristics, and I outlined the cause-and-effect relationships one can follow to identify where we are in the Big Cycle and what is likely to happen next. With that perspective, it is clear to me that we are in Stage 5 (the pre-breakdown of the orders period) and on the brink of Stage 6 (the breaking down of the old orders). In my latest article, I review the developments that characterize Stages 5 and 6 and relate them to what is happening. As always, I'd love to hear your thoughts.