Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough

Name: Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough
Uploaded: 2025-08-29T23:31:16.000Z
Duration: 3 h 2 min 34 s

A Moose Visitor and Podcast Introduction

The Moose's Arrival

The host humorously introduces a moose that has come to visit, showcasing a light-hearted moment at the beginning of the podcast.

The moose is described as a "stately animal," indicating its impressive presence.

Podcast Kickoff

The host welcomes listeners back to the "All-In" podcast, emphasizing its status as the number one podcast in the world.

An upcoming event, the fourth annual All-In Summit on September 8th and 9th in Los Angeles, is announced with excitement.

Event Sponsorship Highlights

Ad Read Attempt

Freeberg attempts an ad read for event sponsorship but struggles humorously, prompting laughter from co-hosts.

Key Sponsors and Activities

Oracle is highlighted as a major sponsor providing drinks at the expo hall and hosting dinners focused on private equity (PE), venture capital (VC), and AI infrastructure.

Circle and BVNK are mentioned for sponsoring a stable coin dinner, indicating their involvement in cryptocurrency discussions during the summit.

Fun Activities Planned

Networking Lounge and Arcade Games

A tech networking lounge will be set up by Circle at the event, fostering connections among attendees.

An arcade will be built out in the expo hall by BVNK, sparking playful competition among participants with classic games like Donkey Kong and Street Fighter 2.

Personal Stories: Bar Mitzvah Memories

Host's Bar Mitzvah Experience

One host shares memories of his backyard bar mitzvah featuring an arcade game rental as a highlight.

Comparisons of Celebrations

Another co-host reflects on simpler birthday parties from Brooklyn involving pizza or bowling rather than extravagant celebrations.

Political Discussions Among Hosts

Political Awakening

David Sax discusses his lack of political awareness during his bar mitzvah era but later became politically aware while attending Stanford University.

Generational Perspectives on Politics

Discussion shifts to how current generations react against perceived political correctness, leading to more conservative views among younger people today.

Vacation Update and Product Recommendations

Personal Experience on Vacation

The speaker shares a personal anecdote about visiting Pantelleria, an island known for its beauty, but faced challenges due to a family member's illness during the trip.

After the vacation, they traveled to Milan for relaxation and shopping, highlighting Milan's reputation for good shopping.

Product Discussion: On Running Shoes

The speaker mentions purchasing "On" running shoes, specifically walking shoes, expressing satisfaction with their comfort and performance.

They encourage others to try these shoes and mention a promotional code for discounts.

Celebrity Connections and Business Ventures

Name-Dropping in Conversations

The speaker casually references conversations with notable figures like Ben Stiller, discussing his new venture into creating a soda brand called "David Stiller's Sodas."

Insights on Celebrity Influence

The discussion touches on the relevance of celebrities in business ventures and how their influence can impact brand success.

Foundry University Launch Announcement

Introduction of Foundry University

An announcement is made regarding the soft launch of Foundry University aimed at teaching startup creation globally.

Expansion Plans

The first international location will be Riyadh in November, with plans to expand further into Asia next year.

Investment Strategy Overview

Structure of Foundry University Program

The program operates as a pre-accelerator where participants learn how to build companies; some may later join accelerators like Y Combinator.

Investment Approach

Out of thousands of applicants, only a select few are chosen for investment after evaluation over 12 weeks.

Political Commentary: Trump vs. Federal Reserve

Current Events Involving Trump and the Fed

A significant political story involves President Trump’s ongoing conflict with the Federal Reserve regarding governance issues.

Legal Implications Surrounding Fed Governor Lisa Cook

Lisa Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump after being fired without cause; this marks a historic precedent in U.S. politics concerning Fed governors' independence.

Background Context

Cook was nominated by Biden and faces allegations related to mortgage fraud that complicate her position within the Fed.

Upcoming Developments

Discussion on the Federal Reserve's Independence and Role

Investment News and Fed Speculation

The speaker congratulates Shane on an investment from Donald Trump Jr. and mentions a 25% chance that Lisa Cook may leave her position by year-end, indicating uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's leadership.

Concerns About Fed Independence

The discussion raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, questioning whether political motivations are influencing its decisions regarding rate cuts.

The speaker argues that the perception of nonpartisanship in government appointments, including the Supreme Court and federal agencies, is misleading; they assert that appointees often align with the ideology of their appointing president.

Political Nature of the Federal Reserve

It is suggested that acknowledging the political nature of the Federal Reserve is crucial to understanding its operations and decisions.

The speaker proposes that a sitting president should have the authority to remove a Fed governor if their policies do not align with voter expectations, similar to other government positions.

Evaluating Fed Responsibilities

A critical evaluation of what roles the Fed should play in 2025 highlights concerns over its ability to manage monetary policy effectively amidst a rapidly changing global economy.

The speaker critiques reliance on potentially flawed data for monetary policy decisions made by a small group at the Fed, suggesting this could lead to ineffective governance.

Alternative Approaches to Economic Data

There’s skepticism about whether the Fed should act as a lender of last resort; Treasury is viewed as more effective based on past performance during financial crises.

While some functions like banking supervision are deemed acceptable for continued Fed involvement, there’s doubt about its effectiveness in dynamic areas like monetary policy and price stability.

Future Data Publication Methods

A proposal suggests using blockchain technology for publishing economic data (e.g., GDP), which could enhance real-time market responses rather than relying solely on outdated information from traditional sources.

Concerns Over Government Weaponization

Freeberg questions potential future scenarios where political leaders might manipulate government positions for personal agendas, raising concerns about fairness in appointments.

Fed Independence and Political Influence

The Role of Appointees in the Federal Reserve

Discussion on the partisan nature of Fed appointees, questioning the notion of Fed independence and suggesting that many functions could be better handled by the Treasury.

Structure and Resilience of the Fed

The 14-year terms for board members are designed to insulate them from political cycles, promoting institutional resilience against political whims.

Interest Rates and Economic Implications

Concerns about lowering short-term interest rates leading to potential long-term consequences, including inflation spikes and increased government spending.

Importance of Independent Economic Assessment

Emphasis on having an independent board to assess trade-offs between short-term economic stimulation and long-term debt servicing costs.

Reevaluating Appointment Terms

Suggestion to reconsider the appropriateness of 14-year terms for Fed governors, paralleling concerns with lifetime appointments in the Supreme Court.

Concerns Over Political Oversight

Investigating Misconduct vs. Political Manipulation

Freeberg expresses concern over using investigations as a means to undermine appointed officials based on their political affiliations rather than actual misconduct.

Lawfare Accusations in Context

Acknowledgment that while ethics should be enforced, there is apprehension regarding potential misuse of investigations against politically opposed appointees.

Political Dynamics within the Federal Reserve

Perception of Political Bias in Fed Actions

Sax argues that current actions reflect a pushback against perceived political bias within the Fed, challenging claims that it operates strictly apolitically.

Historical Context: Inflation Management Decisions

Reference to Jerome Powell's handling of inflation narratives during his nomination process, highlighting how political considerations may have influenced policy decisions.

Consequences of Delayed Policy Shifts

Discussion on whether earlier acknowledgment of inflation would have mitigated economic bubbles experienced in late 2021 due to prolonged low-interest rates and quantitative easing policies.

Economic Policy and Political Influence

The Role of the Federal Reserve in Inflation Management

The speaker argues that both Biden and Yellen are mistaken about inflation being transitory, emphasizing a need for raising interest rates or halting quantitative easing (QE).

The political motivations behind Powell's decisions are highlighted, suggesting that his actions contributed to an asset bubble in 2021 and subsequent inflation spikes.

A discussion on real estate deals from late 2021 illustrates how artificially low rates led to high valuations, creating a wall of debt needing refinancing.

Critique of Federal Reserve Decision-Making

Questions arise regarding the effectiveness of the Fed's decision-making process compared to private industry, which operates at a much faster pace using advanced data analytics.

The argument is made that while the Fed meets monthly, their decisions may not be as timely or effective due to reliance on outdated data.

Political Dynamics within the Federal Reserve

Despite claims of partisanship, it is noted that current members were appointed by both Trump and Biden, indicating a more balanced approach than perceived.

Dissenting opinions exist within the Fed; however, they are limited and do not significantly alter Powell's leadership dynamics.

Timing of Rate Decisions

The timing of Powell’s renomination coincides with significant policy shifts regarding inflation acknowledgment and rate cuts.

A specific instance is cited where Powell initiated a rate cut before an election under pressure from political figures like Elizabeth Warren.

Hypocrisy in Political Pressure on Monetary Policy

Contradictions in political stances are discussed; Warren previously urged for rate cuts when inflation was lower but later criticized Powell for similar actions post-election.

Discussion on Federal Reserve Policies and Political Influences

The Role of Dissent in the Fed's Decisions

The speaker highlights that not all members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) align with political pressures, noting instances where dissent occurred, such as two votes against a decision in July.

The argument is made that if political motivations were solely at play, it wouldn't account for Republican members also voting differently; this suggests internal party conflicts exist.

Impact of Economic Policies on Elections

A 50 basis point rate cut was implemented before elections to benefit the incumbent administration, but its effectiveness is questioned as inflation began to rise.

The unprecedented nature of Trump's tariff policies created uncertainty within the Fed regarding their economic impact, leading to market volatility.

Market Reactions and Rate Setting Mechanisms

Following initial market declines due to tariffs, data released in May and June prompted discussions about potential rate cuts by September.

Markets quickly adjusted their expectations regarding tariffs before the Fed convened again, indicating a preference for free-market mechanisms over centralized control.

Proposals for Free Market Rate Setting

The discussion introduces the idea of using blockchain technology and pricing oracles to determine interest rates based on real-time data rather than relying solely on Fed decisions.

In this proposed system, banks would use oracles to establish what they believe the risk-free rate should be during treasury auctions.

Accountability within the Federal Reserve

While acknowledging that some responsibilities of the Fed are still necessary, there’s an argument made for reducing its role in setting rates due to inefficiencies compared to free markets.

The current method used by the Fed is criticized for being imprecise; it operates within a range rather than providing specific rates due to uncertainty among board members.

Leadership Dynamics and Decision-Making Processes

Insights into how decisions are made within large board meetings suggest that leadership dynamics can diffuse accountability among members when outcomes are unfavorable.

There’s an emphasis on Jerome Powell's role as leader of the Fed; despite having one vote among many, he shapes majorities and agendas significantly.

Critique of Powell's Actions

Concerns are raised about Powell's political alignment affecting his decisions; frustration is expressed over his adherence to narratives that may have led to poor capital allocation prior to elections.

Discussion on Government Stake in Intel

Overview of the US Government's Investment

The discussion begins with a critique of Elizabeth Warren, emphasizing her lack of relevance in the context of economic policy and rate cuts.

Trump announced that the US government would acquire a 10% stake in Intel as part of efforts to boost domestic chip manufacturing through the CHIPS Act.

The CHIPS Act includes $9 billion in grants and tens of billions in loans aimed at supporting semiconductor production within the United States.

Details on Equity Acquisition

The investment will consist of non-voting shares, meaning no governance rights or board representation for the government, contrasting with China's model.

Trump's previous call for Intel's CEO to resign due to conflicts related to China highlights tensions surrounding corporate governance and national security.

Implications and Concerns

Chimath raises concerns about whether this equity acquisition could set a precedent for future government investments in private companies.

Historical context is provided regarding China's strategic support for key industries, including semiconductors and rare earth elements, which may inform US policy decisions.

Strategic Considerations

The Chinese government's market strategies are discussed, illustrating how they manipulate markets to benefit their state-supported companies.

In contrast, the US has historically acted as a lender without capturing any upside from its financial interventions during crises like TARP.

Future Directions

There is advocacy for adopting an approach similar to China's but with transparency and without excessive control over companies by the government.

Intel and the Chips Act: National Security Implications

The Need for Onshoring Chip Manufacturing

Intel received over $8 billion under the Chips Act due to offshoring of chip manufacturing, primarily to Taiwan, raising national security concerns for the U.S.

The decision to onshore chip manufacturing was driven by bipartisan support for the Chips Act, emphasizing a priority to bring production back to the U.S.

Government Involvement and Economic Strategy

There is a call for taxpayers to gain some upside from government investments in companies receiving funds, ensuring accountability and reducing reliance on bailouts.

Consensus exists that it’s better for taxpayers to receive equity rather than giving away free money; however, there are criticisms regarding how these deals were negotiated.

Indicators of Market Failure

Government intervention suggests failures in the free market, as it steps in through regulatory changes or capital provision when private sectors cannot meet demands.

The government's significant role in job creation and economic growth indicates an oversized influence on market strategies.

Concerns Over Socialism and Equity Distribution

Some argue that increased government involvement reflects a shift towards socialism, with concerns about its impact on free market dynamics.

If the government takes equity stakes in companies, questions arise about management of those assets—whether they sit idle or are strategically utilized.

Proposed Solutions for Managing Equity

Three potential outcomes exist for managing government-held equity: keeping it on federal balance sheets without strategy, creating a new sovereign wealth fund, or utilizing existing structures like OASI (Old Age Survivors Insurance Fund).

Strategic Evolution of the System

Discussion on Equity and Social Security Trust Fund

The speaker emphasizes the importance of evolving the system, suggesting that the Social Security Trust Fund could invest in public equities for retirees, potentially leading to significant compounding benefits.

Reflection on Past Government Loans

Jacob recalls previous government loans made during Obama's administration to companies like Tesla and Solyndra, noting that many failed to repay their loans while Elon Musk repaid his early.

Concerns Over Bullying Tactics

The speaker expresses discomfort with President Trump's approach of pressuring CEOs, particularly criticizing the optics of bullying Intel's CEO while negotiating deals.

Negotiation Strategies and Public Perception

There is a discussion about whether Trump's aggressive negotiation style detracts from substantive achievements. The speaker suggests a more diplomatic approach would yield better results without negative optics.

Sovereign Wealth Fund Debate

A question arises regarding the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund amidst national debt. The conversation highlights differing opinions on prioritizing debt reduction before creating such funds.

Funding Sovereign Wealth through International Investments

Potential Capital Inflows from Trade Deals

One participant argues for starting a sovereign wealth fund now, citing substantial capital commitments from countries like Japan and Korea as potential funding sources.

Strategic Use of Investment Gains

It is suggested that gains from international investments should be directed towards reducing national debt or funding social security, emphasizing strategic financial management.

Concerns About Federal Spending Habits

Government Spending and Social Security Concerns

Mismanagement of Social Security Funds

The government has misallocated funds intended for social security, using them for various programs instead of maintaining the trust fund.

Increased government income leads to more spending on new initiatives without addressing underlying issues, particularly in social security.

Proposed Solutions for Social Security

Advocates suggest that any surplus should strictly offset social security obligations rather than be used as a general spending mechanism.

There is a call for selective use of government funds, especially when bailouts are necessary due to national priorities.

Equity and Accountability in Government Spending

Emphasis on ensuring that equity from government investments goes towards beneficial uses rather than being squandered or mismanaged.

Discussion about the importance of accountability in how funds are reported and utilized, particularly regarding past bailouts like TARP.

Budgeting Models and Fiscal Responsibility

Grover Norquist's Taxpayer Protection Pledge

Reference to Grover Norquist’s op-ed discussing fiscal responsibility and limiting budget growth based on population and inflation metrics.

Colorado's Budgeting Model

Colorado has successfully implemented a model where budget size is tied to population growth plus inflation, leading to taxpayer refunds.

Political Implications of Budget Control

Suggestion that adopting similar budgeting practices could form a unifying platform for political parties focused on fiscal responsibility.

Corporate Bankruptcy Trends

Rise in Corporate Bankruptcies

A report indicates an increase in corporate bankruptcies in 2025, marking the highest number since 2010 following the financial crisis.

Definition of Large Bankruptcies

Bankruptcy Trends and Economic Insights

Current Bankruptcy Landscape

In 2025, there have been 446 large bankruptcies within the first seven months, indicating a potential trend towards the highest number of bankruptcies since 2010.

The increase in corporate bankruptcies is linked to the rate hikes that began in 2022, suggesting a correlation between interest rates and bankruptcy rates.

Misinterpretations in Media Narratives

There are misleading narratives attributing recent bankruptcies to tariffs imposed during the Trump administration; however, this perspective overlooks deeper economic factors.

A significant observation is that fewer bankruptcies occurred over the past four to five years than expected due to artificially low interest rates allowing companies easier access to capital.

Factors Influencing Bankruptcies

Companies were able to survive longer due to an influx of capital from low-interest rates, which delayed inevitable failures as their core businesses struggled.

The prolonged period of easy money has now ended, leading to an increase in bankruptcies as companies face financial pressures without sufficient support.

Creative Destruction and Market Efficiency

The lack of "creative destruction" in American business formation since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has contributed to inefficiencies within the market.

Structural issues prevented mergers and acquisitions (M&A), which could have allowed struggling businesses to consolidate or pivot effectively.

Future Outlook on Bankruptcies

With regulatory constraints lifted, there may be increased M&A activity as companies seek opportunities for survival through consolidation.

A new wave of competition is emerging from unexpected sources, potentially putting additional pressure on existing businesses and leading to more bankruptcies but also clearing out inefficient firms.

Cultural Commentary on Brand Failures

Discussion shifts towards notable brand failures like Forever 21 and Hooters; opinions vary on which bankruptcy had a greater impact culturally or economically.

Creative Destruction in Retail and Real Estate

The Impact of Creative Destruction on Retail

Sax discusses the concept of creative destruction, noting that recent changes in retail cannot solely be attributed to tariffs, as they are relatively new. He emphasizes that many affected companies operate physical retail locations.

The flushing out of the retail channel is seen as a natural consequence of the rise of e-commerce giants like Amazon and Sheen, which have changed consumer behavior significantly.

Retail businesses are described as highly leveraged due to long-term leases, likening them to debt obligations. This makes them less nimble compared to service-oriented businesses.

Economic Trends and Bankruptcies

Sax mentions that some overfunded businesses with negative unit economics are being eliminated from the market, particularly in sectors labeled as tech but not necessarily traditional technology firms.

A discussion on bankruptcy trends reveals no significant increase despite some uptick since the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), with GDP growth remaining strong at 3.3%.

Real Estate Challenges

There is acknowledgment of softness in sectors sensitive to high-interest rates, particularly real estate. Sax recalls previous discussions about impending commercial real estate debt maturities totaling $2.2 trillion before 2028.

Banks prefer restructuring debts rather than foreclosing on properties due to potential balance sheet impacts, leading to "blend and extend" deals where terms are adjusted without true equity recovery.

Refinancing Issues in Real Estate

As debt matures and refinancing occurs at higher interest rates, previously cash-flowing buildings may become financially unviable or bankrupt due to increased costs.

Valuation declines complicate refinancing further; lower property values mean reduced loan amounts available for refinancing, creating gaps that equity holders must cover.

Shifts in Real Estate Financing Trends

Discussion shifts towards a credit crunch affecting office construction financing while demand moves toward data centers instead.

Commercial Real Estate and Economic Risks

Challenges in Commercial Real Estate

A tenant seeks lower rent, but building owners lack incentive to reduce prices due to financial constraints.

Concerns arise over a significant amount of commercial real estate debt maturing, posing risks to the economy.

Criticism directed at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for maintaining low rates to support political interests rather than addressing economic realities.

The Need for Rate Cuts

The speaker argues that sectors like real estate require interest rate cuts to stabilize amidst economic challenges.

Yamanaka Factors and Cellular Rejuvenation

Introduction to Yamanaka Factors

Discussion on Yamanaka factors, which are four proteins capable of reverting cells back into stem cells.

These proteins (OSK&M) trigger gene expression that rejuvenates cells, allowing them to regain youthful characteristics.

Applications and Research Developments

Low doses of Yamanaka factors can repair DNA and restore cellular function without fully reverting cells to stemness.

Successful applications in mice have shown potential for reversing aging effects, leading to increased lifespan and improved physical traits.

Advancements in Protein Engineering with AI

GPT 4B Micro Model Development

OpenAI announces the creation of GPT 4B micro, a model trained on protein sequences and biological data.

This model aims to enhance the effectiveness of Yamanaka factors by predicting new protein structures through amino acid sequence modifications.

Experimental Results

Collaboration with Retrobiosciences led to the development of new proteins that were found 50 times more effective than original Yamanaka factors in rejuvenating cells.

Remarkable results showed over 30% cell rejuvenation within seven days, with critical stem cell markers expressed by day twelve.

Therapeutics and Aging: A New Frontier

The Role of Proteins in Reversing Aging

Companies like Altos are heavily investing in therapeutics aimed at proteins that can reset cellular functions, potentially reversing aging by repairing DNA damage and correcting gene expression.

The optimism surrounding these therapies is based on their ability to address the functional drivers of aging, particularly the disruption in gene expression networks.

Advances in Large Language Models (LLMs)

Recent developments show that LLMs can analyze DNA data without prior knowledge, identifying pathogenic variants through pattern recognition.

This suggests that emergent phenomena in protein structure and function can be distilled into DNA sequences, allowing LLMs to generate new ideas for therapeutic drugs.

Therapeutic Development Stages

Some companies are currently targeting specific health conditions with their therapeutics, which are undergoing clinical trials to assess efficacy.

These trials are still in early stages (Phase 1), focusing on safety and dosing before moving towards broader applications related to aging itself.

Future Projections for Drug Approval

Experts estimate a timeline of 7 to 12 years for the approval of drugs utilizing these innovative pathways for reversing aging.

There is speculation about alternative treatments becoming available sooner, possibly within three to four years, as interest grows around self-administered therapies abroad.

Risks Associated with Cellular Rejuvenation Therapies

Concerns exist regarding overdosing on proteins that could revert cells back to stem cell states uncontrollably, leading to cancer-like growth patterns.

It’s crucial to explore how to modulate these therapies safely while harnessing their potential for cellular rejuvenation.

The Future of AI Models in Therapeutic Applications

The discussion highlights a shift towards developing smaller, fine-tuned AI models tailored for specific applications rather than relying on one large model for all tasks.

Discussion on Vaccine Policies and Public Reactions

Overview of Recent Changes in Vaccine Recommendations

The conversation begins with a mention of upcoming discussions regarding vaccine policies, highlighting the division in public opinion about their necessity for healthy individuals versus those at risk.

RFK has withdrawn federal funding for mRNA vaccine development and removed COVID vaccines from CDC recommendations for healthy children and pregnant women, requiring consultations with physicians before vaccination.

Public Sentiment and Cognitive Dissonance

There is a notable reaction among the public, particularly those who are "co-obsessed" with vaccines, indicating a strong emotional response to these changes.

The discussion touches on why some people react negatively to even discussing the number of vaccines given to children, suggesting it stems from a fear of admitting past mistakes regarding their children's health.

The Role of Trust in Health Decisions

Acknowledgment that questioning established decisions can lead to cognitive dissonance; parents may feel defensive about choices made for their children.

One speaker reflects on their initial willingness to get vaccinated based on societal pressure and trust in health authorities like the CDC.

Critique of Health Authorities

There's skepticism expressed towards health organizations, suggesting that reliance on them without critical evaluation can lead to regret over medical decisions.

The conversation shifts towards questioning not just the CDC but also other institutions like the Federal Reserve, emphasizing a broader theme of distrust in authoritative bodies.

Humor and Personal Anecdotes

Light-hearted banter ensues about personal experiences with clubs and memberships, illustrating camaraderie among speakers while contrasting serious topics discussed earlier.

A humorous anecdote about wine pricing at exclusive clubs highlights social dynamics within elite circles.

All-In Club Discussion

Concept of an All-In Club

The idea of starting an "All-In Club" is proposed, suggesting a social gathering for like-minded individuals.

There is uncertainty about what type of club would appeal to all members involved, hinting at the diverse interests within the group.

Social Activities and Engagement

A humorous suggestion is made about having a physical location in major cities where members could engage in games like backgammon or enjoy cigars.

The conversation reflects on the camaraderie among the hosts, emphasizing their enjoyment and connection during the podcast episode.

Podcast Promotion and Community Building

Listeners are encouraged to share the podcast with friends who may not be aware of it, highlighting its popularity as "the number one podcast in the world."

An invitation to join a mailing list at allin.com is extended, with hints at exclusive events such as parties for subscribers.

Upcoming Events and Special Guests

Excitement builds around an upcoming summit featuring surprise speakers added last minute by Sax, indicating dynamic planning and engagement with audience expectations.