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2025 Lecture Series - NQ Heavy Manipulation Review
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2025 Lecture Series - NQ Heavy Manipulation Review

Wednesday Review for April 23-25

Overview of NASDAQ Daily Chart

  • The video presents a brief review focusing on the NASDAQ daily chart, emphasizing key elements such as premium wicks and volume imbalances.
  • Attention is drawn to a specific wick after a market decline, highlighting its significance in identifying swing lows and potential market behavior.

Understanding Wicks and Volume Imbalances

  • The speaker explains measuring from the open to the low of a candlestick, noting that wicks should be treated as gaps which can indicate market movement.
  • A volume imbalance is identified between two candlesticks, suggesting areas where price may react or consolidate during trading sessions.

Market Environment Challenges

  • Current market conditions are described as challenging due to significant separation between settlement prices, necessitating focus on volume imbalances for analysis.
  • The complexity of using PD arrays (premium discount arrays) is discussed, indicating they require more experience than traditional support and resistance methods.

Trading Strategy Insights

  • Two primary reference points are established: the premium wick and consequent encroachment level on the daily chart for NASDAQ June delivery contracts in 2025.
  • The session opened with a large gap; however, the speaker advises against immediately going long until prices reach a discount level.

Observations on Market Behavior

  • Relative equal highs are noted as potential targets if the market continues to push higher; uncertainty remains about whether these levels will be reached within the week.
  • Geopolitical factors affecting tariffs are mentioned as contributing to unpredictable market behavior, reflecting past predictions made by the speaker regarding future events.

Analysis of Lower Time Frames

  • A five-minute chart shows how prices eventually traded into and above previous levels before declining back into daily volume imbalances.
  • The presence of manual intervention is suggested based on observed price movements characterized by back-and-forth action among wicks.

Conclusion and Resources

Trading Insights and Strategies

Market Conditions and Trading Decisions

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of recognizing clean market conditions for trading, suggesting that when signs of a difficult market appear, traders should refrain from making trades.
  • The speaker discusses the purpose of their Telegram channel, which is to share 33 years of trading experience rather than providing direct trade signals or encouraging risky financial decisions.
  • It is noted that trading in volatile markets requires careful positioning and risk management; large stops may be necessary to endure price fluctuations.
  • The speaker mentions using specific strategies like fair value gaps and false breaks but expresses reluctance to take long positions due to market conditions.
  • A one-minute chart is referenced where the market shows back-and-forth movements, indicating potential challenges in identifying clear trading opportunities.

Price Action Analysis

  • The speaker anticipates a pullback into a fair value gap based on observed price action, setting expectations for future movements in the market.
  • After observing significant price action, the speaker decides to go short on a candlestick pattern, indicating confidence in their analysis despite previous volatility.
  • Discussion includes how price respects certain levels (premium wicks), leading to further analysis of imbalances within the market structure.
  • A bearish order block is identified as part of an institutional entry strategy; this highlights advanced concepts used by experienced traders for decision-making.
  • The concept of pressure gaps and volume imbalances are introduced as critical elements influencing market direction during specific time frames.

Execution and Risk Management

  • The speaker shares details about executing a short position at a specific price point while discussing the implications of false breakouts (referred to as "turtle soup").
  • A detailed plan for managing contracts is outlined, emphasizing strategic exits based on predetermined levels rather than emotional reactions during trades.
  • An account of being stopped out illustrates the importance of setting stop-loss orders effectively; it reflects both luck and skill in navigating tight markets.
  • The discussion touches on how manual intervention can impact trading outcomes; even experienced traders face challenges against unpredictable market forces.

Risk Management in Trading

Importance of Risk Management

  • Emphasizes the necessity of proper risk management in trading, highlighting that traders should avoid over-leveraging and utilize stop losses effectively.
  • Notes that traders without stop losses often experience anxiety and poor health, equating their situation to gambling rather than strategic trading.

Market Dynamics and Emotional Responses

  • Discusses the emotional turmoil traders face when they miss expected price movements, leading to frustration and anger.
  • Reminds listeners that regardless of skill or mentorship, market dynamics are controlled by larger entities who can manipulate prices at will.

Analyzing Price Action

  • Encourages viewers to analyze price action through specific patterns like fair value gaps and volume imbalances for better decision-making.
  • Describes a scenario where a fair value gap acts as an inversion point, indicating potential market reversals.

Daily Volume Imbalance Insights

  • Explains how daily volume imbalances create liquidity pools which can be exploited for trading opportunities.
  • Highlights the importance of understanding these concepts thoroughly before attempting to trade based on them.

Personal Development as a Trader

Building Your Trading Identity

  • Clarifies that the speaker does not engage with various social media platforms but offers insights through a free Telegram channel for real-time updates.

Journaling and Self-Awareness

  • Plans to provide examples of electronic logging or journaling practices to help traders reflect on their strategies and decisions.

Understanding Personal Traits in Trading

  • Stresses the need for traders to understand their own characteristics—whether they are contrarian or indecisive—to develop effective trading models.

Avoiding Self-Sabotage

Understanding the Importance of Personal Insight in Trading Strategies

The Role of Individual Understanding in Trading Success

  • Following someone else's trading system or mentorship, even with winning signals, can lead to failure if you don't understand your own approach and mindset.
  • It's crucial to grasp who you are as a trader; this self-awareness is what differentiates effective mentorship from mere instruction.
  • The speaker emphasizes that while many strategies exist, personal insight and understanding enhance their effectiveness when applied correctly.
Playlists: 2025 Lecture Series
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.