Midweek Mentoring Session - January 7, 2026

Introduction and Personal Reflection

• Host Ben Surgill opens the session, acknowledging a technical issue with sound and expressing gratitude for attendees.

• He mentions missing a song, "Southern Comfort" by Buddy Jewel, which he enjoys and plans to play during the session.

Personal Loss and Grief

• Ben shares the news of his wife's grandmother's passing, reflecting on their last visit together in New Hampshire.

• He describes her as a sweet yet direct person who was well-loved by family; her name was Lois Kelly, affectionately called Mimy.

• A humorous anecdote is shared about how Mimy initially did not know Ben's name but eventually warmed up to him.

Support During Grief

• Ben emphasizes the importance of being present for those experiencing loss, drawing from his experience in ministry over ten years.

• He encourages attendees to mourn with those grieving rather than trying to offer solutions or words that may not alleviate pain.

Finding Comfort in Memories

• The host reflects on how time heals grief and expresses hope through his faith while acknowledging the challenge of loss.

• He explains why he chose "Southern Comfort," relating it to seeking solace in loved ones during difficult times.

Transitioning to Trading Discussion

• Despite personal challenges, Ben intends to continue with the mentoring session as a way to honor lost loved ones through hard work.

• He outlines the agenda for the session: discussing trade ideas, trading techniques, and key psychological aspects related to trading.

Lighthearted Moments

• The session includes humor with a dad joke about skydiving failure as an icebreaker before diving into more serious topics.

• Another joke is shared regarding resumes at work, adding levity to the atmosphere amidst discussions of grief.

Understanding Market Liquidity and Expectations for 2026

Introduction to Market Conditions

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of being aware of current market conditions and sets expectations for 2026.

• A call for audience engagement is made, asking who remembers previous discussions about global liquidity.

Insights on Global Liquidity

• The speaker believes that liquidity will be forced into the market, indicating a significant change in financial dynamics.

• A screenshot of the reverse repo market is introduced, highlighting its relevance to understanding liquidity trends.

Reverse Repo Market Explained

• The reverse repo market is described as crucial for managing short-term interest rates and overall liquidity in the financial system.

• It acts as a buffer to absorb excess cash, signaling broader market liquidity conditions which can impact lending and investing.

Quantitative Easing Discussion

• The speaker connects the concept of quantitative easing with their expectation of increased liquidity in 2026.

• A brief pause is taken to shift focus towards practical trading strategies while maintaining awareness of overarching economic themes.

Trading Strategy Insights

• An example trade idea involving Uber options is presented, emphasizing risk management and potential breakout opportunities.

• Technical analysis indicates a gap that could be filled by Uber's stock price, suggesting strategic entry points for traders.

Conclusion on Market Expectations

• The discussion returns to expectations for 2026, reiterating the anticipated influx of over $80 billion into reverse repo markets early in January.

• The implications of increased liquidity are explored further, drawing parallels with past monetary policy actions during COVID.

Market Response and Trading Mindset

Understanding Market Reactions

• The speaker discusses the market's bullish response following a liquidity push, indicating that the market has gone up since then.

• Emphasizes that the purpose of analyzing market movements is not to boast about being right but to understand market dynamics and trading strategies.

• Highlights the importance of having expectations in trading; when expectations are met, traders should be prepared to act accordingly.

Preparedness in Trading

• Stresses the necessity of responding with a prepared plan when market conditions align with expectations, using "respond" as a key action word.

• Shares personal experience of adding to an Amazon position as part of his prepared plan after observing favorable market conditions.

Long-Term Strategies and Expectations

• The speaker reflects on their long-term commitment to Amazon, suggesting they have consistently advocated for this stock over time.

• Discusses why they chose to hold until May, focusing on weekly chart analysis and recent liquidity observations.

Analyzing Market Setups

• Describes a specific setup observed in Amazon's price movement, indicating confidence in potential future gains based on historical patterns.

• Mentions discussions with colleagues about predictive price movements and emphasizes the need for patience during dips.

Confidence Building Through Experience

• Questions whether traders approach their trading periods with a clear plan based on expectations, linking this mindset to effective preparation.

• Reinforces that consistent discussions about stocks like Amazon help build collective knowledge within the trading community.

Learning from Outcomes

• Outlines two critical actions for traders: either act based on observations or watch and learn from outcomes. Both approaches contribute to building confidence.

• Concludes by stating that repeated positive experiences lead to increased confidence in trading decisions, emphasizing growth through both success and learning from mistakes.

Growing Confidence in Trading

Mindset and Market Outlook

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of growing confidence among traders, indicating that mindset is crucial for success.

• They predict a bullish market trend due to liquidity injections, suggesting strong positions in reliable stocks with solid setups.

• A significant investment of $8 million in Amazon's June calls is highlighted as an example of strong market positioning.

Technical Analysis Insights

• The discussion shifts to technical setups, focusing on how charts react to bad news without negative responses.

• When a stock does not respond poorly to bad news, it indicates potential strength; traders should consider buying calls.

Understanding Relative Outperformers

• The concept of "relative outperformers" is introduced—stocks that perform well even when the overall market is weak.

• If these stocks can withstand poor market conditions, they are expected to excel when the market improves.

Resilience in Stocks

• Resilient stocks are defined as those that do not react negatively to bad news; this resilience suggests underlying strength.

• The speaker prompts participants to define resilience and discusses its implications for trading strategies.

Fake News and Market Manipulation

• The notion of "fake news" affecting stock prices is explored; misinformation can be used strategically by investors.

• Manipulation tactics are discussed, emphasizing historical patterns where negative news leads to price drops allowing for strategic buying opportunities.

Implications of Bad News on Stock Performance

• Stocks that remain strong despite bad news indicate buyer interest; their performance could significantly improve with positive developments.

• An analogy comparing resilient trades to employees highlights the desired response during challenging situations—staying strong and focused.

Conclusion: Honey Badger Mentality

• The "honey badger" analogy illustrates a trader's attitude towards challenges—resilient and unbothered by setbacks.

• Recent activity in Uber options (95 calls for February at $1.57 million investment), reinforces the idea of taking calculated risks based on market behavior.

Understanding Professionalism and Resilience in Trading

Expectations of Professionals

• The speaker emphasizes that while perfection is not expected from employees, honesty and professionalism are crucial.

• They reflect on their own experiences in basketball, highlighting the importance of moving forward without complaining after mistakes.

• The speaker judges employees based on their reactions to bad news, indicating that true character is revealed during tough times.

Character Revealed Under Pressure

• A metaphor comparing people to fruit illustrates that when squeezed (or pressured), individuals reveal their true nature.

• The speaker poses a thought-provoking question about how individuals will respond when faced with market pressures in 2026.

Mindset During Market Challenges

• The discussion transitions into mindset, questioning whether one will exhibit patience and planning or succumb to panic during market squeezes.

• This reflection serves as a self-assessment tool for traders aiming to mature in their craft.

Analyzing Market Behavior: Case Study of Nvidia

• The speaker discusses Nvidia's strong start to the day, noting its initial resilience despite negative news regarding China’s chip purchases.

• They highlight how the stock dipped but quickly bounced back, indicating buyer interest at key support levels.

Technical Analysis Insights

• The bounce back of Nvidia demonstrates resilience; this behavior suggests higher probability for continued upward movement despite adverse news.

• Emphasizing technical setups, the speaker notes that resilient stocks have a higher likelihood of maintaining price support due to active buyers.

Understanding Market Psychology

• Charts serve as visual representations of collective market psychology; understanding this can guide trading decisions.

• Resilient buyers increase the probability of price support during downturns, reinforcing the importance of recognizing these patterns.

Current Market Observations and Strategies

• As markets drop, the speaker expresses ongoing interest in specific stocks like Uber and stresses having clear plans for risk management.

• They reiterate previous advice about focusing on strong sectors and waiting for pullbacks before entering trades.

Strong Sector Analysis: XLF

Overview of XLF's Performance

• The speaker identifies XLF as a strong sector, emphasizing its long-term strength and current trend.

• A pullback is noted, with the speaker indicating that they are waiting for a return to the "A DMA" risk zones.

Buying Opportunities

• The breakout level is discussed; it previously failed to hold above this level multiple times, suggesting potential buying opportunities as it pulls back.

• Mention of $59 calls in XLF for April at 71 cents indicates interest in options trading within this sector.

Sector Names and Options Strategy

• The speaker suggests looking into specific names within the sector such as BAC (Bank of America), Wells Fargo, and Citigroup for options strategies.

• Discussion on targeting February calls for XLF indicates a strategy focused on shorter-term trades.

Risk Management and Target Setting

Entry Points and Targets

• A trigger point is set at 55.65 or back at the eight EMA risk zone around 55.50.

• The target price is identified as 56.50+, with stops suggested below 55 to manage risk effectively.

Earnings Impact

• Anticipation of earnings reports is highlighted as a factor that could influence stock performance positively.

Trade Examples and Technical Insights

Successful Trades

• Reference to previous successful trades like Google’s Jan 16 calls illustrates effective trading strategies based on market conditions.

Sizing Strategy

• Emphasis on sizing trades appropriately: starters, more significant positions, and most substantial investments are discussed to manage exposure effectively.

Final Thoughts and Personal Notes

Trading Philosophy

• The importance of setting plans, stops, and moving on from unsuccessful trades is reiterated as part of a disciplined trading approach.

Personal Note

• A personal request for prayers or good vibes reflects the speaker's connection with their audience beyond trading discussions.

This structured summary captures key insights from the transcript while providing timestamps for easy reference.

Live Trading and Community Engagement Event Overview

Event Details and Purpose

• The event includes a taco bar and games to foster community engagement, scheduled for January 29-30.

• A reminder is given about the live in-person training and trading sessions, emphasizing limited availability of tickets.

• Attendees are encouraged to participate actively; several individuals confirm their attendance in the chat.

Value Proposition

• The goal of the event is to provide significant value for attendees, with a ticket price set at $1,000.

• All proceeds beyond expenses will support the Austin Fuller School, highlighting a philanthropic aspect of the event.

Future Aspirations

• The speaker expresses a desire to donate six figures to nonprofits by 2026, indicating long-term charitable goals tied to future events.

Community Contribution

• An invitation is extended for those unable to attend to contribute via a provided link, reinforcing community involvement regardless of physical presence.